Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) Fair Value 2026

BFS · REIT - Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) trades at $33.27, versus a $22.14 median fair value across its 8 active models — 33.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BFS
Price
$33.27
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $22.14, 33.4% below the current price of $33.27. Estimates range from $1.08 to $71.03. BFS scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BFS’s -33.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Retail sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Saul Centers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BFS?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.81 -52.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.96 -28.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.32 -38.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.08 -96.7%
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What Is BFS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.08 to $71.03

CirclFi's 8 active models place Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) between $1.08 and $71.03 per share, a spread of 316% of the median. The median of that range — $22.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BFS, against a current price of $33.27.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$1.08median $22.14$71.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.08
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$71.03
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BFS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BFS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Saul Centers, Inc. at its current price of $33.27. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $22.14 (-33.4% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $71.03 (+113.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.08 (-96.7%). This +210.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Saul Centers, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BFS?

8 of 13 models are currently active for BFS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BFS is $22.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BFS Rank in REIT - Retail?

Among 26 REIT - Retail stocks, BFS ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Retail space, Saul Centers, Inc. competes in an environment where gross margin expansion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BFS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BFS a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Saul Centers, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Saul Centers, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +210.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BFS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BFS's 8 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Saul Centers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

NTSTNETSTREIT Corp.QOC 7.8KRGKite Realty Group TrustQOC 7.7FCPTFour Corners Property Trust, Inc.QOC 7.8SITCSITE Centers Corp.QOC 7.6BRXBrixmor Property Group Inc.QOC 7.9AKRAcadia Realty TrustQOC 7.6NNNNNN REIT, Inc.QOC 7.4WHLRWheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 6.3SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.QOC 8.3FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustQOC 8.9REGRegency Centers CorporationQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: NTST · KRG · FCPT · SITC · BRX · AKR · NNN · WHLR · SPG · FRT · REG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BFS?

7 companies across all industries closest to BFS’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

BLLNBillionToOne, Inc.QOC 7.7GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.QOC 7.7FMNBFarmers National Banc Corp.QOC 7.7RBBNRibbon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7AXILAXIL Brands, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLLN · GFS · FMNB · RBBN · AIG · AXIL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Saul Centers, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Saul Centers, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS)'s intrinsic value at $22.14 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.08 to $71.03. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BFS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.27, 3 of 8 active models suggest BFS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $22.14, 33.4% below the current price of $33.27 — a consensus view that BFS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Saul Centers, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for BFS?

Saul Centers, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BFS?

CirclFi analyzes BFS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BFS?

Of the 8 models currently active on BFS, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $71.03 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.08. CirclFi's published fair value for BFS is the median of that range, $22.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 316% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BFS a value trap in 2026?

Saul Centers, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) has a median fair value of $22.14 — 33.4% below the current price of $33.27 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BFS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BFS valuation
  • Financial statements: Saul Centers, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000907254) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BFS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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