AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) Fair Value 2026

ATR · Medical Instruments & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) trades at $120.25, versus a $105.83 median fair value across its 11 active models — 12.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $152.77.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATR
Price
$120.25
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +27.0% upside with 75% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $105.83, 12.0% below the current price of $120.25. Estimates range from $23.28 to $275.96. ATR scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ATR’s -12.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Medical Instruments & Supplies sector median is -28.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AptarGroup, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ATR?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($120.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $152.77 +27.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.15 -50.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $105.83 -12.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.26 -49.9%
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What Is ATR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $23.28 to $275.96

CirclFi's 11 active models place AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) between $23.28 and $275.96 per share, a spread of 239% of the median. The median of that range — $105.83 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ATR, against a current price of $120.25.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$23.28median $105.83$275.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$23.28
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$275.96
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ATR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ATR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AptarGroup, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $105.83, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $120.25. While the median implied return is -12.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +210.1% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $275.96 (+129.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $23.28 (-80.6%). This +210.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AptarGroup, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ATR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ATR. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ATR is $105.83 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $152.77 on its own, implying +27.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATR Rank in Medical Instruments & Supplies?

Among 54 Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, ATR ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places ATR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks →

AptarGroup, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ATR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATR a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for AptarGroup, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AptarGroup, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +210.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATR's 11 active models, average confidence is 59%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AptarGroup, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.3MMSIMerit Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 8.7RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.QOC 8.7ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4COOThe Cooper Companies, Inc.QOC 8.5STVNStevanato Group S.p.A.QOC 7.7KRMDKORU Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 6.5LUCYLucyd, IncQOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: LMAT · MMSI · RMD · WST · ISRG · COO · STVN · KRMD · LUCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ATR?

7 companies across all industries closest to ATR’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9WWDWoodward, Inc.QOC 8.9BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.9WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationQOC 8.9ROLRollins, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LDOS · PR · WWD · BRC · WTFC · ROL · NVDA

Where Does ATR Sit in CirclFi's Medical Instruments & Supplies Rankings?

ATR is ranked against every other Medical Instruments & Supplies stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AptarGroup, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AptarGroup, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR)'s intrinsic value at $105.83 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $23.28 to $275.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $152.77 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $120.25, 5 of 11 active models suggest ATR may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $105.83, 12.0% below the current price of $120.25 — a consensus view that ATR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AptarGroup, Inc.'s business model in Medical Instruments & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for ATR?

AptarGroup, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATR?

CirclFi analyzes ATR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ATR?

Of the 11 models currently active on ATR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $275.96 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $23.28. CirclFi's published fair value for ATR is the median of that range, $105.83, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 239% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ATR a value trap in 2026?

AptarGroup, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) has a median fair value of $105.83 — 12.0% below the current price of $120.25 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ATR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ATR valuation
  • Financial statements: AptarGroup, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000896622) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ATR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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