Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) Fair Value 2026

CMT · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) trades at $25.00, versus a $25.70 median fair value across its 11 active models — 2.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $27.08.

Key Facts

Ticker
CMT
Price
$25.00
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +170.1% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $25.70, within 2.8% of the current price of $25.00. Estimates range from $5.98 to $75.88. CMT scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CMT’s +2.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Core Molding Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CMT?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.08 +8.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.63 -45.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $25.70 +2.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $67.52 +170.1%
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What Is CMT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.98 to $75.88

CirclFi's 11 active models place Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) between $5.98 and $75.88 per share, a spread of 272% of the median. The median of that range — $25.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CMT, against a current price of $25.00.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.98median $25.70$75.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$5.98
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$75.88
Model agreement5 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CMT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CMT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $25.70, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $25.00. While the median implied return is +2.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +279.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $75.88 (+203.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $5.98 (-76.1%). This +279.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CMT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CMT. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CMT is $25.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $27.08 on its own, implying +8.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CMT Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, CMT ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places CMT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that working capital efficiency plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including infrastructure spending cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CMT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CMT a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Core Molding Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Core Molding Technologies, Inc. scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +279.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CMT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CMT's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Core Molding Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

SXTSensient Technologies CorporationQOC 8.0EMNEastman Chemical CompanyQOC 7.8AVNTAvient CorporationQOC 8.1SSLSasol LimitedQOC 7.7SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 8.1HDSNHudson Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.QOC 6.8ASHAshland Inc.QOC 5.4RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: SXT · EMN · AVNT · SSL · SOLS · HDSN · IFF · ASH · RPM · ODC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CMT?

7 companies across all industries closest to CMT’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.0NOVNOV Inc.QOC 8.0SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IVR · GABC · NOV · SBH · BWA · SWKS · NVDA

Where Does CMT Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

CMT is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Core Molding Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)'s intrinsic value at $25.70 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.98 to $75.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $27.08 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CMT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.00, 6 of 11 active models suggest CMT may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $25.70, within 2.8% of the current price of $25.00 — a consensus view that CMT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for CMT?

Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CMT?

CirclFi analyzes CMT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CMT?

Of the 11 models currently active on CMT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $75.88 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $5.98. CirclFi's published fair value for CMT is the median of that range, $25.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 272% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CMT a value trap in 2026?

Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) has a median fair value of $25.70 — within 2.8% of the current price of $25.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CMT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CMT valuation
  • Financial statements: Core Molding Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001026655) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CMT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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