Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) Fair Value 2026

IVR · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) trades at $7.36, versus a $7.25 median fair value across its 6 active models — 1.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
IVR
Price
$7.36
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $7.25, within 1.5% of the current price of $7.36. Estimates range from $5.34 to $13.35. IVR scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. IVR’s -1.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IVR?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.14 -16.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.90 -6.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.34 -27.4%
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What Is IVR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $5.34 to $13.35

CirclFi's 6 active models place Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) between $5.34 and $13.35 per share, a spread of 110% of the median. The median of that range — $7.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IVR, against a current price of $7.36.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$5.34median $7.25$13.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.34
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$13.35
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IVR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IVR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.25, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $7.36. With a median implied return of -1.5% across a split 2–3 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +108.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +81.4% (fair value: $13.35), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -27.4% ($5.34). The spread between these extremes — +108.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About IVR?

6 of 13 models are currently active for IVR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IVR is $7.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IVR Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, IVR ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places IVR in the top tier.

As a REIT, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates in a sector where funds from operations (FFO) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating IVR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is IVR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IVR a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +108.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IVR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IVR's 6 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1DXDynex Capital, Inc.QOC 7.9NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 7.6MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ARRARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.QOC 6.5RPTRithm Property Trust Inc.QOC 5.1ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: EFC · DX · NLY · REFI · MFA · SUNS · TRTX · ARR · RPT · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IVR?

7 companies across all industries closest to IVR’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

NOVNOV Inc.QOC 8.0CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.0BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0SSTKShutterstock, Inc.QOC 8.0GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NOV · CMT · BWA · SBH · SSTK · GABC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR)'s intrinsic value at $7.25 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.34 to $13.35. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IVR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.36, 3 of 6 active models suggest IVR may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $7.25, within 1.5% of the current price of $7.36 — a consensus view that IVR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for IVR?

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IVR?

CirclFi analyzes IVR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IVR?

Of the 6 models currently active on IVR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $13.35 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.34. CirclFi's published fair value for IVR is the median of that range, $7.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 110% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IVR a value trap in 2026?

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) has a median fair value of $7.25 — within 1.5% of the current price of $7.36 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IVR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IVR valuation
  • Financial statements: Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001437071) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IVR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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