What Is INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $13.60. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $8.10 (implied upside of +67.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +348.7% (fair value: $36.35), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -99.0% ($0.08). The spread between these extremes — +447.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About IVR?
12 of 13 models are currently active for IVR. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates IVR's intrinsic value at $20.04, implying +147.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does IVR Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?
Among 190 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, IVR ranks #94 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →
As a REIT, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC operates in a sector where funds from operations (FFO) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating IVR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is IVR a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IVR a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC is rated at 6.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +447.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every IVR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across IVR's 12 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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