Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Fair Value 2026

EFC · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) trades at $13.57, versus a $15.12 median fair value across its 3 active models — 11.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EFC
Price
$13.57
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +19.6% upside with 9% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $15.12, 11.4% above the current price of $13.57. Estimates range from $10.79 to $16.22. EFC scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. EFC’s +11.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ellington Financial Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EFC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $15.12 +11.4%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $10.79 -20.5%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $16.22 +19.6%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is EFC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $10.79 to $16.22

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) between $10.79 and $16.22 per share, a spread of 36% of the median. The median of that range — $15.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EFC, against a current price of $13.57.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$10.79median $15.12$16.22
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$10.79
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$16.22
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on EFC. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EFC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellington Financial Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.12, suggesting a +11.4% median upside from the current price of $13.57. While 2 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 1 model flags potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $16.22 (+19.6%), versus Regime Cross at $10.79 (-20.5%). This +40.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About EFC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for EFC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EFC is $15.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EFC Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, EFC ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places EFC in the top tier.

Ellington Financial Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Mortgage segment means that weighted average lease term (WALT) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including tenant credit quality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is EFC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EFC a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ellington Financial Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellington Financial Inc. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +40.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EFC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EFC's 3 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ellington Financial Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1DXDynex Capital, Inc.QOC 7.9ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 7.6TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 6.7CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 5.2ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: NLY · IVR · MFA · DX · ARI · REFI · TRTX · BXMT · CMTG · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EFC?

7 companies across all industries closest to EFC’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

CBKMConsumers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1KRCKilroy Realty CorporationQOC 8.1LSBKLake Shore Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1COSOCoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1DBXDropbox, Inc.QOC 8.1BSETBassett Furniture Industries, IncorporatedQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CBKM · KRC · LSBK · COSO · DBX · BSET · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ellington Financial Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ellington Financial Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)'s intrinsic value at $15.12 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.79 to $16.22. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EFC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.57, 2 of 3 active models suggest EFC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $15.12, 11.4% above the current price of $13.57 — a consensus view that EFC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ellington Financial Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for EFC?

Ellington Financial Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EFC?

CirclFi analyzes EFC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EFC?

Of the 3 models currently active on EFC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $16.22 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $10.79. CirclFi's published fair value for EFC is the median of that range, $15.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 36% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EFC a value trap in 2026?

Ellington Financial Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) has a median fair value of $15.12 — 11.4% above the current price of $13.57 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EFC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EFC valuation
  • Financial statements: Ellington Financial Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001411342) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EFC as of ; valuations recomputed .