What Is Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellington Financial Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $13.46. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $20.86 (+55.0% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $68.94 (+412.2%), versus EPV at $2.50 (-81.5%). This +493.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About EFC?
11 of 13 models are currently active for EFC. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates EFC's intrinsic value at $6.32, implying -53.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does EFC Rank in Real Estate?
Among 32 Real Estate stocks, EFC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places EFC in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Stocks →
Ellington Financial Inc.'s positioning within the Real Estate segment means that weighted average lease term (WALT) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including tenant credit quality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is EFC a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EFC a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
11 of 13 models are active for Ellington Financial Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellington Financial Inc. scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +493.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every EFC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across EFC's 11 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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