FirstService Corporation (FSV) Fair Value 2026

FSV · Real Estate Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, FirstService Corporation (FSV) trades at $141.09, versus a $26.18 median fair value across its 8 active models — 81.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FSV
Price
$141.09
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is FirstService Corporation (FSV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, FirstService Corporation (FSV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $26.18, 81.4% below the current price of $141.09. Estimates range from $7.55 to $141.33. FSV scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FSV’s -81.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Real Estate Services sector median is -12.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FirstService Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FSV?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($141.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.60 -86.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.56 -76.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.80 -86.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.32 -87.0%
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What Is FSV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $7.55 to $141.33

CirclFi's 8 active models place FirstService Corporation (FSV) between $7.55 and $141.33 per share, a spread of 511% of the median. The median of that range — $26.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FSV, against a current price of $141.09.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$7.55median $26.18$141.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$7.55
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$141.33
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FSV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FSV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FirstService Corporation (FSV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FirstService Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $26.18, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $141.09. With 7 out of 8 models flagging downside (-81.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $141.33 (+0.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $7.55 (-94.6%). This +94.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FSV?

8 of 13 models are currently active for FSV. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FSV is $26.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FSV Rank in Real Estate Services?

Among 51 Real Estate Services stocks, FSV ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places FSV in the top tier.

As a real estate investment trust, FirstService Corporation operates in a sector where capitalization rate (cap rate) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FSV should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FSV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FSV a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for FirstService Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, FirstService Corporation is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FSV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FSV's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FirstService Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Real Estate Services stocks with 13-model coverage

IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.4JLLJones Lang LaSalle IncorporatedQOC 8.3CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.QOC 8.1CIGIColliers International Group Inc.QOC 2.1AOXYAdvanced Oxygen Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.8NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.QOC 7.2FTHMFathom Holdings Inc.QOC 5.9EUDAEUDA Health Holdings LimitedQOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: IRS · JLL · CHCI · CSGP · CIGI · AOXY · NMRK · FTHM · EUDA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FSV?

7 companies across all industries closest to FSV’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

RIGLRigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.QOC 8.4LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc.QOC 8.4UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4FNBF.N.B. CorporationQOC 8.4GAPThe Gap, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RIGL · OPCH · LOPE · UFCS · FNB · GAP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About FirstService Corporation’s Valuation?

What is FirstService Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FirstService Corporation (FSV)'s intrinsic value at $26.18 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.55 to $141.33. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FSV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $141.09, 1 of 8 active models suggest FSV may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $26.18, 81.4% below the current price of $141.09 — a consensus view that FSV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FirstService Corporation's business model in Real Estate Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for FSV?

FirstService Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FSV?

CirclFi analyzes FSV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FSV?

Of the 8 models currently active on FSV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $141.33 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $7.55. CirclFi's published fair value for FSV is the median of that range, $26.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 511% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FSV a value trap in 2026?

FirstService Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, FirstService Corporation (FSV) has a median fair value of $26.18 — 81.4% below the current price of $141.09 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FSV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FSV valuation
  • Financial statements: FirstService Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001637810) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FSV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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