Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) Fair Value 2026

FPH · Real Estate - Development ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) trades at $5.10, versus a $5.92 median fair value across its 9 active models — 16.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FPH
Price
$5.10
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +40.7% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $5.92, 16.1% above the current price of $5.10. Estimates range from $1.06 to $18.90. FPH scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FPH’s +16.1% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Five Point Holdings, LLC Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FPH?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.06 -79.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.37 +5.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.36 -73.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.17 +40.7%
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What Is FPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.06 to $18.90

CirclFi's 9 active models place Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) between $1.06 and $18.90 per share, a spread of 301% of the median. The median of that range — $5.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FPH, against a current price of $5.10.

Low · EPVHigh · PWERM
$1.06median $5.92$18.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.06
Most bullish modelPWERM$18.90
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FPH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Five Point Holdings, LLC at $5.10. With an estimated intrinsic value of $5.92 and 6 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +16.1%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $18.90 (+270.7%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.06 (-79.2%). This +349.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Five Point Holdings, LLC's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FPH?

9 of 13 models are currently active for FPH. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FPH is $5.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FPH Rank in Real Estate - Development?

Among 19 Real Estate - Development stocks, FPH ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Five Point Holdings, LLC's positioning within the Real Estate - Development segment means that net asset value (NAV) premium/discount plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including demographic-driven demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FPH a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Five Point Holdings, LLC. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Five Point Holdings, LLC scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +349.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FPH's 9 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Five Point Holdings, LLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate - Development Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Real Estate - Development stocks with 13-model coverage

AXRAMREP CorporationQOC 8.0FORForestar Group Inc.QOC 7.7LPALogistic Properties of the AmericasQOC 2.4LRELead Real Estate Co., LtdQOC 7.6RENXRenX Enterprises Corp.QOC 4.0HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.QOC 7.1SKYHSky Harbour Group CorporationQOC 5.9GEDCTerraVolt Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: AXR · FOR · LPA · LRE · RENX · HHH · SDHC · SKYH · GEDC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FPH?

7 companies across all industries closest to FPH’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

WETHWetouch Technology Inc.QOC 7.7CPNGCoupang, Inc.QOC 7.7HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7NVAXNovavax, Inc.QOC 7.7CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.7KRGKite Realty Group TrustQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WETH · CPNG · HII · NVAX · CZWI · KRG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Five Point Holdings, LLC’s Valuation?

What is Five Point Holdings, LLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH)'s intrinsic value at $5.92 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.06 to $18.90. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.10, 6 of 9 active models suggest FPH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $5.92, 16.1% above the current price of $5.10 — a consensus view that FPH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Five Point Holdings, LLC's business model in Real Estate - Development.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for FPH?

Five Point Holdings, LLC's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FPH?

CirclFi analyzes FPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FPH?

Of the 9 models currently active on FPH, PWERM is the most bullish at $18.90 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.06. CirclFi's published fair value for FPH is the median of that range, $5.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 301% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FPH a value trap in 2026?

Five Point Holdings, LLC's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Five Point Holdings, LLC (FPH) has a median fair value of $5.92 — 16.1% above the current price of $5.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FPH valuation
  • Financial statements: Five Point Holdings, LLC 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001574197) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FPH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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