Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Fair Value 2026

NLY · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) trades at $23.04, versus a $22.16 median fair value across its 5 active models — 3.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NLY
Price
$23.04
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $22.16, within 3.8% of the current price of $23.04. Estimates range from $16.92 to $30.79. NLY scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NLY’s -3.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NLY?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $22.16 -3.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $20.48 -11.1%
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What Is NLY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $16.92 to $30.79

CirclFi's 5 active models place Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) between $16.92 and $30.79 per share, a spread of 63% of the median. The median of that range — $22.16 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NLY, against a current price of $23.04.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$16.92median $22.16$30.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$16.92
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$30.79
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NLY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $22.16, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $23.04. While the median implied return is -3.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +60.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $30.79 (+33.6%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $16.92 (-26.6%). This +60.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NLY?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NLY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NLY is $22.16 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NLY Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, NLY ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places NLY in the top tier.

Within the REIT - Mortgage space, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. competes in an environment where net asset value (NAV) premium/discount often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NLY a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Annaly Capital Management, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +60.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NLY's 5 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2DXDynex Capital, Inc.QOC 7.9ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2RITMRithm Capital Corp.QOC 6.7LFTLument Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 5.3ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: MFA · EFC · ARI · IVR · ADAM · DX · ABR · RITM · LFT · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NLY?

7 companies across all industries closest to NLY’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

CMICummins Inc.QOC 8.1POOLPool CorporationQOC 8.1AMSCAmerican Superconductor CorporationQOC 8.1SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.1AMAntero Midstream CorporationQOC 8.1RNSTRenasant CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CMI · POOL · AMSC · SKWD · AM · RNST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Annaly Capital Management, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)'s intrinsic value at $22.16 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $16.92 to $30.79. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.04, 2 of 5 active models suggest NLY may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $22.16, within 3.8% of the current price of $23.04 — a consensus view that NLY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for NLY?

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NLY?

CirclFi analyzes NLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NLY?

Of the 5 models currently active on NLY, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $30.79 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $16.92. CirclFi's published fair value for NLY is the median of that range, $22.16, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 63% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NLY a value trap in 2026?

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) has a median fair value of $22.16 — within 3.8% of the current price of $23.04 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NLY valuation
  • Financial statements: Annaly Capital Management, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001043219) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NLY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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