Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Fair Value 2026

ADAM · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) trades at $9.25, approximately 147% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.74. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADAM
Price
$9.25
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +289.9% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $9.83, within 6.2% of the current price of $9.25. Estimates range from $1.19 to $36.07. ADAM scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Adamas Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$3.74 -59.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$1.19 -87.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$36.07 +289.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$5.00 -45.9%

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What Is Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adamas Trust, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $9.25. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $12.44 (+34.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: CUCE targets $36.07 (+289.9%), versus EPV at $1.19 (-87.2%). This +377.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ADAM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ADAM. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ADAM's intrinsic value at $3.74, implying -59.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADAM Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 14 REIT - Mortgage stocks, ADAM ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a real estate investment trust, Adamas Trust, Inc. operates in a sector where debt-to-EBITDA is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ADAM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ADAM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADAM a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Adamas Trust, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Adamas Trust, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.6/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +377.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADAM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADAM's 11 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Adamas Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Adamas Trust, Inc.

What is Adamas Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.74. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADAM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.25, 6 of 11 active models suggest ADAM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $9.83, within 6.2% of the current price of $9.25 — a consensus view that ADAM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Adamas Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for ADAM?

Adamas Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADAM?

CirclFi analyzes ADAM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ADAM a value trap in 2026?

Adamas Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) has a median fair value of $9.83 — within 6.2% of the current price of $9.25 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADAM/ · Methodology

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