Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Fair Value 2026

ADAM · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) trades at $9.80, versus a $10.71 median fair value across its 5 active models — 9.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADAM
Price
$9.80
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +27.0% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $10.71, within 9.3% of the current price of $9.80. Estimates range from $8.12 to $17.98. ADAM scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ADAM’s +9.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Adamas Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADAM?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.45 +27.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.71 +9.3%
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What Is ADAM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.12 to $17.98

CirclFi's 5 active models place Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) between $8.12 and $17.98 per share, a spread of 92% of the median. The median of that range — $10.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADAM, against a current price of $9.80.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$8.12median $10.71$17.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.12
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$17.98
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADAM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adamas Trust, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $9.80. Based on our 13-model framework, Adamas Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $10.71 — representing +9.3% implied upside — with 4 out of 5 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $17.98 (+83.5%), versus Regime Cross at $8.12 (-17.1%). This +100.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ADAM?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ADAM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ADAM is $10.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADAM Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, ADAM ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ADAM in the top tier.

As a real estate investment trust, Adamas Trust, Inc. operates in a sector where debt-to-EBITDA is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ADAM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ADAM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADAM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Adamas Trust, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Adamas Trust, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADAM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADAM's 5 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Adamas Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1LOANManhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.QOC 7.5CIMChimera Investment CorporationQOC 6.9RWTRedwood Trust, Inc.QOC 5.7

Read investment analysis: MITT · ARI · FBRT · MFA · ORC · NLY · LOAN · CIM · RWT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADAM?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADAM’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

TMPTompkins Financial CorporationQOC 8.2WSBCWesBanco, Inc.QOC 8.2AONAon plcQOC 8.2PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.2GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2WDAYWorkday, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TMP · WSBC · AON · PSA · GPK · WDAY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Adamas Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Adamas Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM)'s intrinsic value at $10.71 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $8.12 to $17.98. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADAM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.80, 4 of 5 active models suggest ADAM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $10.71, within 9.3% of the current price of $9.80 — a consensus view that ADAM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Adamas Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ADAM?

Adamas Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADAM?

CirclFi analyzes ADAM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADAM?

Of the 5 models currently active on ADAM, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $17.98 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $8.12. CirclFi's published fair value for ADAM is the median of that range, $10.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 92% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADAM a value trap in 2026?

Adamas Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) has a median fair value of $10.71 — within 9.3% of the current price of $9.80 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADAM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADAM valuation
  • Financial statements: Adamas Trust, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001273685) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADAM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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