Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Fair Value 2026

ARI · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) trades at $6.85, versus a $5.96 median fair value across its 8 active models — 13.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARI
Price
$6.85
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $5.96, 13.0% below the current price of $6.85. Estimates range from $2.47 to $10.15. ARI scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ARI’s -13.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARI?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.20 -38.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.98 -12.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.60 -32.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.94 -13.3%
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What Is ARI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.47 to $10.15

CirclFi's 8 active models place Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) between $2.47 and $10.15 per share, a spread of 129% of the median. The median of that range — $5.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARI, against a current price of $6.85.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$2.47median $5.96$10.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.47
Most bullish modelPWERM$10.15
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.96. Trading at $6.85, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -13.0%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +48.2% (fair value: $10.15), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -63.9% ($2.47). The spread between these extremes — +112.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ARI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ARI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARI is $5.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARI Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, ARI ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ARI in the top tier.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to REIT businesses. For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc., metrics like debt-to-EBITDA provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ARI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.2/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +112.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARI's 8 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1AOMRAngel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.QOC 7.5SEVNSeven Hills Realty TrustQOC 6.8ACREAres Commercial Real Estate CorporationQOC 5.6ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: ADAM · MFA · MITT · NLY · FBRT · EFC · AOMR · SEVN · ACRE · ORC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARI?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARI’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

APLEApple Hospitality REIT, Inc.QOC 8.2CCUCompañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A.QOC 8.2TRGPTarga Resources Corp.QOC 8.2MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2WHGWestwood Holdings Group, Inc.QOC 8.2PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: APLE · CCU · TRGP · MCFT · WHG · PENG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)'s intrinsic value at $5.96 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.47 to $10.15. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.85, 3 of 8 active models suggest ARI may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $5.96, 13.0% below the current price of $6.85 — a consensus view that ARI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ARI?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARI?

CirclFi analyzes ARI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARI?

Of the 8 models currently active on ARI, PWERM is the most bullish at $10.15 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $2.47. CirclFi's published fair value for ARI is the median of that range, $5.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 129% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARI a value trap in 2026?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a median fair value of $5.96 — 13.0% below the current price of $6.85 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARI valuation

Market data for ARI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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