Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Fair Value 2026

ORC · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) trades at $6.69, versus a $7.73 median fair value across its 5 active models — 15.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORC
Price
$6.69
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +15.5% upside with 18% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $7.73, 15.5% above the current price of $6.69. Estimates range from $5.63 to $10.76. ORC scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ORC’s +15.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.73 +15.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.44 +11.2%
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What Is ORC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $5.63 to $10.76

CirclFi's 5 active models place Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) between $5.63 and $10.76 per share, a spread of 66% of the median. The median of that range — $7.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ORC, against a current price of $6.69.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$5.63median $7.73$10.76
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$5.63
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$10.76
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ORC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Orchid Island Capital, Inc.. Trading at $6.69 against an estimated intrinsic value of $7.73, 4 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +15.5% at the median. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $10.76 (+60.8%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $5.63 (-15.8%). This +76.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ORC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ORC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ORC is $7.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORC Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, ORC ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ORC in the top tier.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For Orchid Island Capital, Inc., metrics like weighted average lease term (WALT) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ORC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORC a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Orchid Island Capital, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +76.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORC's 5 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

KREFKKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.QOC 4.8FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2RPTRithm Property Trust Inc.QOC 5.1MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 5.2ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2DXDynex Capital, Inc.QOC 7.9LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.QOC 6.1

Read investment analysis: KREF · FBRT · RPT · MITT · CMTG · ADAM · DX · LADR · BRSP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ORC’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

BMRNBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.QOC 8.6MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.QOC 8.6MORNMorningstar, Inc.QOC 8.6TSTenaris S.A.QOC 8.6VMCVulcan Materials CompanyQOC 8.6BABBBAB, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BMRN · MELI · MORN · TS · VMC · BABB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orchid Island Capital, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)'s intrinsic value at $7.73 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.63 to $10.76. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.69, 4 of 5 active models suggest ORC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $7.73, 15.5% above the current price of $6.69 — a consensus view that ORC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ORC?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORC?

CirclFi analyzes ORC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ORC?

Of the 5 models currently active on ORC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $10.76 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $5.63. CirclFi's published fair value for ORC is the median of that range, $7.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 66% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ORC a value trap in 2026?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) has a median fair value of $7.73 — 15.5% above the current price of $6.69 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORC valuation
  • Financial statements: Orchid Island Capital, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001518621) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ORC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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