Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Fair Value 2026

VMC · Building Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) trades at $273.85, versus a $110.66 median fair value across its 11 active models — 59.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $138.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
VMC
Price
$273.85
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +31.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $110.66, 59.6% below the current price of $273.85. Estimates range from $52.91 to $360.10. VMC scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VMC’s -59.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Materials sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vulcan Materials Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VMC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($273.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $138.02 -49.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $52.91 -80.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $110.66 -59.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $360.10 +31.5%
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What Is VMC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $52.91 to $360.10

CirclFi's 11 active models place Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) between $52.91 and $360.10 per share, a spread of 278% of the median. The median of that range — $110.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VMC, against a current price of $273.85.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$52.91median $110.66$360.10
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$52.91
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$360.10
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VMC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VMC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vulcan Materials Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $110.66. Trading at its current price of $273.85, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -59.6%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $360.10 (+31.5%), versus EPV at $52.91 (-80.7%). This +112.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About VMC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for VMC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VMC is $110.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $138.02 on its own, implying -49.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VMC Rank in Building Materials?

Among 19 Building Materials stocks, VMC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places VMC in the top tier.

The Building Materials sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial enterprise businesses. For Vulcan Materials Company, metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is VMC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VMC a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Vulcan Materials Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Vulcan Materials Company earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +112.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VMC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VMC's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vulcan Materials Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Building Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

SMIDSmith-Midland CorporationQOC 8.8MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.QOC 8.4CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.QOC 8.9LOMALoma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.0CRHCRH plcQOC 9.0AMRZAmrize LtdQOC 8.0JHXJames Hardie Industries plcQOC 7.7BASABasanite, Inc.QOC 3.8USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: SMID · MLM · CPAC · LOMA · CRH · AMRZ · JHX · BASA · USLM · TGLS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VMC?

7 companies across all industries closest to VMC’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

KFYKorn FerryQOC 8.6MORNMorningstar, Inc.QOC 8.6BBSIBarrett Business Services, Inc.QOC 8.6ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc.QOC 8.6CRAICRA International, Inc.QOC 8.6TSTenaris S.A.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KFY · MORN · BBSI · ATMU · CRAI · TS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vulcan Materials Company’s Valuation?

What is Vulcan Materials Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)'s intrinsic value at $110.66 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $52.91 to $360.10. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $138.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $273.85, 1 of 11 active models suggest VMC may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $110.66, 59.6% below the current price of $273.85 — a consensus view that VMC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vulcan Materials Company's business model in Building Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for VMC?

Vulcan Materials Company's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VMC?

CirclFi analyzes VMC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VMC?

Of the 11 models currently active on VMC, First Chicago is the most bullish at $360.10 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $52.91. CirclFi's published fair value for VMC is the median of that range, $110.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 278% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VMC a value trap in 2026?

Vulcan Materials Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) has a median fair value of $110.66 — 59.6% below the current price of $273.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VMC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VMC valuation
  • Financial statements: Vulcan Materials Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001396009) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VMC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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