Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Fair Value 2026

MLM · Building Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) trades at $528.59, versus a $154.69 median fair value across its 12 active models — 70.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $180.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
MLM
Price
$528.59
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $154.69, 70.7% below the current price of $528.59. Estimates range from $23.49 to $531.16. MLM scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MLM’s -70.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Materials sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MLM?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($528.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $180.66 -65.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $98.58 -81.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $168.45 -68.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $508.16 -3.9%
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What Is MLM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $23.49 to $531.16

CirclFi's 12 active models place Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) between $23.49 and $531.16 per share, a spread of 328% of the median. The median of that range — $154.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MLM, against a current price of $528.59.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$23.49median $154.69$531.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$23.49
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$531.16
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MLM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MLM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $154.69. Trading at its current price of $528.59, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -70.7%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $531.16 (+0.5%), versus Dynamic NAV at $23.49 (-95.6%). This +96.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MLM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MLM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MLM is $154.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $180.66 on its own, implying -65.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MLM Rank in Building Materials?

Among 19 Building Materials stocks, MLM ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places MLM in the top tier.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s positioning within the Building Materials segment means that order backlog depth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MLM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MLM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +96.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MLM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MLM's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Building Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

VMCVulcan Materials CompanyQOC 8.6LOMALoma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.0SMIDSmith-Midland CorporationQOC 8.8AMRZAmrize LtdQOC 8.0CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.QOC 8.9JHXJames Hardie Industries plcQOC 7.7EXPEagle Materials Inc.QOC 7.6RMIXSuncrete, Inc.QOC 3.2TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: VMC · LOMA · SMID · AMRZ · CPAC · JHX · EXP · RMIX · TGLS · USLM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MLM?

7 companies across all industries closest to MLM’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

HWBKHawthorn Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.4FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 8.4OTISOtis Worldwide CorporationQOC 8.4STRAStrategic Education, Inc.QOC 8.4CCLDCareCloud, Inc.QOC 8.4TEXTerex CorporationQOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HWBK · FSUN · OTIS · STRA · CCLD · TEX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM)'s intrinsic value at $154.69 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $23.49 to $531.16. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $180.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MLM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $528.59, 1 of 12 active models suggest MLM may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $154.69, 70.7% below the current price of $528.59 — a consensus view that MLM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s business model in Building Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for MLM?

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MLM?

CirclFi analyzes MLM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MLM?

Of the 12 models currently active on MLM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $531.16 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $23.49. CirclFi's published fair value for MLM is the median of that range, $154.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 328% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MLM a value trap in 2026?

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) has a median fair value of $154.69 — 70.7% below the current price of $528.59 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MLM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MLM valuation
  • Financial statements: Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000916076) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MLM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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