Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) Fair Value 2026

EXP · Building Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) trades at $197.71, versus a $111.93 median fair value across its 12 active models — 43.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
EXP
Price
$197.71
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +22.7% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $111.93, 43.4% below the current price of $197.71. Estimates range from $38.05 to $360.35. EXP scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. EXP’s -43.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Materials sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Eagle Materials Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EXP?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($197.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.05 -80.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $102.79 -48.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $109.69 -44.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $242.61 +22.7%
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What Is EXP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $38.05 to $360.35

CirclFi's 12 active models place Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) between $38.05 and $360.35 per share, a spread of 288% of the median. The median of that range — $111.93 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EXP, against a current price of $197.71.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$38.05median $111.93$360.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$38.05
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$360.35
Model agreement2 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EXP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EXP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Eagle Materials Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $111.93, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $197.71. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-43.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $360.35 (+82.3%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $38.05 (-80.8%). This +163.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Eagle Materials Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About EXP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for EXP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EXP is $111.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.05 on its own, implying -80.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EXP Rank in Building Materials?

Among 19 Building Materials stocks, EXP ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial sector, Eagle Materials Inc. operates in a sector where aftermarket revenue mix is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating EXP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is EXP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EXP a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Eagle Materials Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Eagle Materials Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EXP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EXP's 12 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Eagle Materials Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Building Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

JHXJames Hardie Industries plcQOC 7.7KNFKnife River CorporationQOC 7.1AMRZAmrize LtdQOC 8.0PHCIPanamera Holdings CorporationQOC 5.1LOMALoma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.0CAPSCapstone Holding Corp.QOC 3.9BASABasanite, Inc.QOC 3.8USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7VMCVulcan Materials CompanyQOC 8.6TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: JHX · KNF · AMRZ · PHCI · LOMA · CAPS · BASA · USLM · VMC · TGLS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EXP?

7 companies across all industries closest to EXP’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

BGSIBoyd Group Services Inc.QOC 7.6ODDOddity Tech Ltd.QOC 7.6CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQOC 7.6DSWLDeswell Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6MVSTMicrovast Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BGSI · ODD · CWEN · ALGT · DSWL · MVST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Eagle Materials Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Eagle Materials Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)'s intrinsic value at $111.93 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $38.05 to $360.35. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EXP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $197.71, 2 of 12 active models suggest EXP may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $111.93, 43.4% below the current price of $197.71 — a consensus view that EXP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Eagle Materials Inc.'s business model in Building Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for EXP?

Eagle Materials Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EXP?

CirclFi analyzes EXP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EXP?

Of the 12 models currently active on EXP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $360.35 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $38.05. CirclFi's published fair value for EXP is the median of that range, $111.93, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 288% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EXP a value trap in 2026?

Eagle Materials Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) has a median fair value of $111.93 — 43.4% below the current price of $197.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EXP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EXP valuation
  • Financial statements: Eagle Materials Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000918646) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EXP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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