James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) Fair Value 2026

JHX · Building Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) trades at $25.53, versus a $9.25 median fair value across its 9 active models — 63.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JHX
Price
$25.53
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $9.25, 63.8% below the current price of $25.53. Estimates range from $2.99 to $54.89. JHX scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. JHX’s -63.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Materials sector median is -31.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy James Hardie Industries plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JHX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.25 -63.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $21.66 -15.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.67 -85.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.38 -86.8%
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What Is JHX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.99 to $54.89

CirclFi's 9 active models place James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) between $2.99 and $54.89 per share, a spread of 561% of the median. The median of that range — $9.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JHX, against a current price of $25.53.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.99median $9.25$54.89
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$2.99
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$54.89
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JHX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JHX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, James Hardie Industries plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $9.25. Trading at its current price of $25.53, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -63.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $54.89 (+115.0%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $2.99 (-88.3%). This +203.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about James Hardie Industries plc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About JHX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for JHX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JHX is $9.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JHX Rank in Building Materials?

Among 19 Building Materials stocks, JHX ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

James Hardie Industries plc's positioning within the Building Materials segment means that order backlog depth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including reshoring and supply chain localization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is JHX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JHX a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for James Hardie Industries plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, James Hardie Industries plc scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +203.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JHX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JHX's 9 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy James Hardie Industries plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Building Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

AMRZAmrize LtdQOC 8.0EXPEagle Materials Inc.QOC 7.6LOMALoma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.0KNFKnife River CorporationQOC 7.1MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.QOC 8.4PHCIPanamera Holdings CorporationQOC 5.1CAPSCapstone Holding Corp.QOC 3.9RETOReTo Eco-Solutions, Inc.QOC 2.4SMIDSmith-Midland CorporationQOC 8.9USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: AMRZ · EXP · LOMA · KNF · MLM · PHCI · CAPS · RETO · SMID · USLM · TGLS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JHX?

7 companies across all industries closest to JHX’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

TPGTPG Inc.QOC 7.7VALUValue Line, Inc.QOC 7.7APTVAptiv PLCQOC 7.7OPYOppenheimer Holdings Inc.QOC 7.7AATAmerican Assets Trust, Inc.QOC 7.7SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TPG · VALU · APTV · OPY · AAT · SARO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About James Hardie Industries plc’s Valuation?

What is James Hardie Industries plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts James Hardie Industries plc (JHX)'s intrinsic value at $9.25 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.99 to $54.89. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JHX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.53, 1 of 9 active models suggest JHX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $9.25, 63.8% below the current price of $25.53 — a consensus view that JHX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits James Hardie Industries plc's business model in Building Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for JHX?

James Hardie Industries plc's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JHX?

CirclFi analyzes JHX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JHX?

Of the 9 models currently active on JHX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $54.89 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $2.99. CirclFi's published fair value for JHX is the median of that range, $9.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 561% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JHX a value trap in 2026?

James Hardie Industries plc's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) has a median fair value of $9.25 — 63.8% below the current price of $25.53 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JHX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JHX valuation
  • Financial statements: James Hardie Industries plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001159152) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JHX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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