Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) Fair Value 2026

SMID · Building Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) trades at $25.10, versus a $14.23 median fair value across its 11 active models — 43.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.50.

Key Facts

Ticker
SMID
Price
$25.10
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +68.2% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $14.23, 43.3% below the current price of $25.10. Estimates range from $2.50 to $53.29. SMID scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SMID’s -43.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Materials sector median is -37.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Smith-Midland Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SMID?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.50 -90.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.40 -66.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.73 -37.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.21 +68.2%
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What Is SMID's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.50 to $53.29

CirclFi's 11 active models place Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) between $2.50 and $53.29 per share, a spread of 357% of the median. The median of that range — $14.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SMID, against a current price of $25.10.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.50median $14.23$53.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$2.50
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$53.29
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SMID. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SMID, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Smith-Midland Corporation at its current price of $25.10. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $14.23 (-43.3% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +112.3% (fair value: $53.29), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -90.1% ($2.50). The spread between these extremes — +202.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SMID?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SMID. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SMID is $14.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.50 on its own, implying -90.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SMID Rank in Building Materials?

Among 19 Building Materials stocks, SMID ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places SMID in the top tier.

Within the Building Materials space, Smith-Midland Corporation competes in an environment where organic revenue growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SMID a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SMID a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Smith-Midland Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Smith-Midland Corporation is rated at 8.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +202.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SMID valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SMID's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Smith-Midland Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Building Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.QOC 8.9VMCVulcan Materials CompanyQOC 8.6CRHCRH plcQOC 9.0MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.QOC 8.4TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1LOMALoma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.0AMRZAmrize LtdQOC 8.0CAPSCapstone Holding Corp.QOC 3.9RETOReTo Eco-Solutions, Inc.QOC 2.4USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CPAC · VMC · CRH · MLM · TGLS · LOMA · AMRZ · CAPS · RETO · USLM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SMID?

7 companies across all industries closest to SMID’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.QOC 8.8SPGIS&P Global Inc.QOC 8.8CLMBClimb Global Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.8DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 8.8ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8CSVCarriage Services, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SSD · SPGI · CLMB · DVN · ZTO · CSV · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Smith-Midland Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Smith-Midland Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID)'s intrinsic value at $14.23 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.50 to $53.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.50 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SMID overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.10, 4 of 11 active models suggest SMID may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $14.23, 43.3% below the current price of $25.10 — a consensus view that SMID is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Smith-Midland Corporation's business model in Building Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for SMID?

Smith-Midland Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SMID?

CirclFi analyzes SMID with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SMID?

Of the 11 models currently active on SMID, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $53.29 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $2.50. CirclFi's published fair value for SMID is the median of that range, $14.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 357% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SMID a value trap in 2026?

Smith-Midland Corporation's Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) has a median fair value of $14.23 — 43.3% below the current price of $25.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SMID/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SMID valuation
  • Financial statements: Smith-Midland Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000924719) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SMID as of ; valuations recomputed .

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