Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) Fair Value 2026

CSV · Services-Personal Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) trades at $39.44, approximately 10% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $35.93. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSV
Price
$39.44
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$35.93 -8.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$20.33 -48.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$32.72 -17.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$34.79 -11.8%

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What Is Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carriage Services, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $30.83. Trading at its current price of $39.44, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -21.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $59.48 (+50.8%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $3.45 (-91.2%). This +142.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CSV?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CSV. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CSV's intrinsic value at $35.93, implying -8.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSV Rank in Services-Personal Services?

Among 11 Services-Personal Services stocks, CSV ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places CSV in the top tier.

Carriage Services, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CSV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSV a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Carriage Services, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carriage Services, Inc. scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSV's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Carriage Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Personal Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Personal Services stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Carriage Services, Inc.

What is Carriage Services, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $35.93. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.44, 3 of 12 active models suggest CSV may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Carriage Services, Inc.'s business model in Services-Personal Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for CSV?

Carriage Services, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSV?

CirclFi analyzes CSV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CSV a value trap in 2026?

Carriage Services, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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