Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Fair Value 2026

DVN · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) trades at $43.72, approximately 55% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $96.11. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DVN
Price
$43.72
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +119.8% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$96.11 +119.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$23.04 -47.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$46.04 +5.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$49.97 +14.3%

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What Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Devon Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $44.39, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $43.72. With an average implied return of +1.5% across a split 6–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +201.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +125.9% (fair value: $98.78), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -75.1% ($10.88). The spread between these extremes — +201.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DVN?

13 of 13 models are currently active for DVN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DVN's intrinsic value at $96.11, implying +119.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DVN Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, DVN ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places DVN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

The Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Devon Energy Corporation, metrics like reserve replacement ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DVN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DVN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Devon Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Devon Energy Corporation earns a quality score of 9.4/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +201.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DVN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DVN's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Devon Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Devon Energy Corporation

What is Devon Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $96.11. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DVN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.72, 6 of 13 active models suggest DVN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Devon Energy Corporation's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for DVN?

Devon Energy Corporation's QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DVN?

CirclFi analyzes DVN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DVN a value trap in 2026?

Devon Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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