Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Fair Value 2026

DVN · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) trades at $47.12, versus a $33.16 median fair value across its 11 active models — 29.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $77.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
DVN
Price
$47.12
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +65.4% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $33.16, 29.6% below the current price of $47.12. Estimates range from $19.14 to $77.96. DVN scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DVN’s -29.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Devon Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DVN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $77.96 +65.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $44.48 -5.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $60.51 +28.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.72 -30.6%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is DVN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $19.14 to $77.96

CirclFi's 11 active models place Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) between $19.14 and $77.96 per share, a spread of 177% of the median. The median of that range — $33.16 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DVN, against a current price of $47.12.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Bayesian DCF
$19.14median $33.16$77.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$19.14
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$77.96
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DVN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DVN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Devon Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.16. Trading at $47.12, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -29.6%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +65.4% (fair value: $77.96), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -59.4% ($19.14). The spread between these extremes — +124.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DVN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for DVN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DVN is $33.16 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $77.96 on its own, implying +65.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DVN Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, DVN ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places DVN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

The Oil & Gas E&P sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Devon Energy Corporation, metrics like reserve replacement ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DVN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DVN a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Devon Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Devon Energy Corporation earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +124.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DVN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DVN's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Devon Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 8.8PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9GPORGulfport Energy CorporationQOC 8.8COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9EXEExpand Energy CorporationQOC 8.7APAAPA CorporationQOC 8.1KGEIKolibri Global Energy Inc.QOC 6.6ROYLRoyale Energy, Inc.QOC 5.1TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: SM · EOG · PR · GPOR · COP · EXE · APA · KGEI · ROYL · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DVN?

7 companies across all industries closest to DVN’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

SPGIS&P Global Inc.QOC 8.8CSVCarriage Services, Inc.QOC 8.8CLMBClimb Global Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.8BBarrick Mining CorporationQOC 8.8SMIDSmith-Midland CorporationQOC 8.8TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedQOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPGI · CSV · CLMB · B · SMID · TCOM · NVDA

Where Does DVN Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

DVN is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Devon Energy Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Devon Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)'s intrinsic value at $33.16 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $19.14 to $77.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $77.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DVN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.12, 4 of 11 active models suggest DVN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $33.16, 29.6% below the current price of $47.12 — a consensus view that DVN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Devon Energy Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for DVN?

Devon Energy Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DVN?

CirclFi analyzes DVN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DVN?

Of the 11 models currently active on DVN, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $77.96 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $19.14. CirclFi's published fair value for DVN is the median of that range, $33.16, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 177% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DVN a value trap in 2026?

Devon Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) has a median fair value of $33.16 — 29.6% below the current price of $47.12 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DVN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DVN valuation
  • Financial statements: Devon Energy Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001090012) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DVN as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on DVN.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for DVN Unlock All 11 — $39/mo