Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Fair Value 2026

CHRD · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) trades at $122.36. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHRD
Price
$122.36
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +175.7% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($122.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$298.59 +144.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$311.04 +154.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$330.23 +169.9%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$337.40 +175.7%

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What Is Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chord Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $201.31. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $122.36 (implied upside of +64.5%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 11 bullish models. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +175.7% (fair value: $337.40), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -52.9% ($57.63). The spread between these extremes — +228.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CHRD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CHRD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHRD Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, CHRD ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

As a oil and gas company, Chord Energy Corporation operates in a sector where reserve life index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CHRD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CHRD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHRD a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Chord Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Chord Energy Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +228.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHRD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHRD's 11 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chord Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Chord Energy Corporation

What is Chord Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHRD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $122.36, 7 of 11 active models suggest CHRD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chord Energy Corporation's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for CHRD?

Chord Energy Corporation's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHRD?

CirclFi analyzes CHRD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CHRD a value trap in 2026?

Chord Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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