Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Fair Value 2026

CHRD · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) trades at $145.99, versus a $155.13 median fair value across its 10 active models — 6.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHRD
Price
$145.99
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +253.0% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $155.13, within 6.3% of the current price of $145.99. Estimates range from $72.33 to $784.35. CHRD scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CHRD’s +6.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Chord Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CHRD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($145.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $228.71 +56.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $515.39 +253.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $152.09 +4.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $111.52 -23.6%
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What Is CHRD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $72.33 to $784.35

CirclFi's 10 active models place Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) between $72.33 and $784.35 per share, a spread of 459% of the median. The median of that range — $155.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CHRD, against a current price of $145.99.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$72.33median $155.13$784.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$72.33
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$784.35
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CHRD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CHRD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chord Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $155.13, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $145.99. With a median implied return of +6.3% across a split 5–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +487.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +437.3% (fair value: $784.35), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -50.5% ($72.33). The spread between these extremes — +487.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CHRD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CHRD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CHRD is $155.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHRD Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, CHRD ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places CHRD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

As a oil and gas company, Chord Energy Corporation operates in a sector where reserve life index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CHRD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CHRD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHRD a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Chord Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Chord Energy Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +487.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHRD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHRD's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chord Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

MTDRMatador Resources CompanyQOC 8.4PNRGPrimeEnergy Resources CorporationQOC 8.3RRCRange Resources CorporationQOC 8.4CRCCalifornia Resources CorporationQOC 8.3AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4SDSandRidge Energy, Inc.QOC 8.3BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4ZNOGZion Oil & Gas, Inc.QOC 5.5GPRKGeoPark LimitedQOC 2.8TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MTDR · PNRG · RRC · CRC · AMPY · SD · BATL · ZNOG · GPRK · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CHRD?

7 companies across all industries closest to CHRD’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

FULTFulton Financial CorporationQOC 8.3RBKBRhinebeck Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3KEKimball Electronics, Inc.QOC 8.3JLLJones Lang LaSalle IncorporatedQOC 8.3ORCLOracle CorporationQOC 8.3BFAMBright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FULT · RBKB · KE · JLL · ORCL · BFAM · NVDA

Where Does CHRD Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

CHRD is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Chord Energy Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Chord Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD)'s intrinsic value at $155.13 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $72.33 to $784.35. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHRD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $145.99, 6 of 10 active models suggest CHRD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $155.13, within 6.3% of the current price of $145.99 — a consensus view that CHRD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chord Energy Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for CHRD?

Chord Energy Corporation's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHRD?

CirclFi analyzes CHRD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CHRD?

Of the 10 models currently active on CHRD, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $784.35 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $72.33. CirclFi's published fair value for CHRD is the median of that range, $155.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 459% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CHRD a value trap in 2026?

Chord Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) has a median fair value of $155.13 — within 6.3% of the current price of $145.99 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CHRD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CHRD valuation
  • Financial statements: Chord Energy Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001486159) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CHRD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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