Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Fair Value 2026

TPL · Oil Royalty Traders ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) trades at $408.95, approximately 220% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $127.90. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TPL
Price
$408.95
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($408.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $127.90 -68.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $59.81 -85.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $124.16 -69.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $123.77 -69.7%

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What Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Texas Pacific Land Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $140.82. Trading at its current price of $408.95, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 13 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -65.6%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $386.94 (-5.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $12.21 (-97.0%). This +91.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Texas Pacific Land Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TPL?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TPL. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates TPL's intrinsic value at $127.90, implying -68.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TPL Rank in Oil Royalty Traders?

Among 9 Oil Royalty Traders stocks, TPL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places TPL in the top tier.

The Oil Royalty Traders sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Texas Pacific Land Corporation, metrics like capital efficiency ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TPL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Texas Pacific Land Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Texas Pacific Land Corporation earns a quality score of 9.4/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TPL's 13 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Texas Pacific Land Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil Royalty Traders Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Oil Royalty Traders stocks with 13-model coverage

LBLandBridge Company LLCQOC 7.1SBRSabine Royalty TrustQOC 2.5MARPSMarine Petroleum TrustQOC 2.4CRTCross Timbers Royalty TrustQOC 2.0MTRMesa Royalty TrustQOC 2.0NRTNorth European Oil Royality TruQOC 2.0PBTPermian Basin Royalty TrustQOC 2.0SJTSan Juan Basin Royalty TrustQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: LB · SBR · MARPS · CRT · MTR

Frequently Asked Questions About Texas Pacific Land Corporation

What is Texas Pacific Land Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $127.90. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $408.95, 0 of 13 active models suggest TPL may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Texas Pacific Land Corporation's business model in Oil Royalty Traders.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for TPL?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation's QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TPL?

CirclFi analyzes TPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TPL a value trap in 2026?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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