Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS) Fair Value 2026

MARPS · Oil Royalty Traders ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS) trades at $4.89, approximately 180% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.74. QOC: 2.4/10. 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MARPS
Price
$4.89
Quality Score
2.4/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +19.4% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.74 -64.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.62 -46.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$5.84 +19.4%
PWERM
Low Conviction
$4.16 -14.9%

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What Is Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marine Petroleum Trust's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $4.89. With 6 out of 8 models flagging downside (-40.8% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $5.84 (+19.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.23 (-95.2%). This +114.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Marine Petroleum Trust's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MARPS?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MARPS. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MARPS's intrinsic value at $1.74, implying -64.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MARPS Rank in Oil Royalty Traders?

Among 9 Oil Royalty Traders stocks, MARPS ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.4 signals below-average fundamentals.

As a energy sector, Marine Petroleum Trust operates in a sector where breakeven oil price is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MARPS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MARPS a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MARPS. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Marine Petroleum Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Marine Petroleum Trust is rated at 2.4/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +114.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MARPS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MARPS's 8 active models, average confidence is 2%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Marine Petroleum Trust Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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8 related Oil Royalty Traders stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Marine Petroleum Trust

What is Marine Petroleum Trust's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.74. The Quality of Company score is 2.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MARPS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.89, 2 of 8 active models suggest MARPS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Marine Petroleum Trust's business model in Oil Royalty Traders.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.4 mean for MARPS?

Marine Petroleum Trust's QOC of 2.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MARPS?

CirclFi analyzes MARPS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MARPS a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for MARPS at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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