What Is Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Mesa Royalty Trust at its current price of $3.17. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $2.41 (-23.8% average return), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $4.54 (+43.1%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $0.82 (-74.1%). This +117.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mesa Royalty Trust's intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About MTR?
9 of 13 models are currently active for MTR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MTR's intrinsic value at $0.89, implying -71.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MTR Rank in Oil Royalty Traders?
Among 9 Oil Royalty Traders stocks, MTR ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.
Within the Oil Royalty Traders space, Mesa Royalty Trust competes in an environment where production decline rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is MTR a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MTR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
9 of 13 models are active for Mesa Royalty Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Mesa Royalty Trust's fundamental quality profile registers 2.0/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +117.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MTR's 9 active models, average confidence is 3%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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