Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) Fair Value 2026

PBT · Oil Royalty Traders ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) trades at $27.99, approximately 334% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.45. QOC: 2.0/10. 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PBT
Price
$27.99
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +33.7% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($27.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$6.45 -77.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$10.81 -61.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$37.44 +33.7%
PWERM
Low Conviction
$23.89 -14.7%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 8 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Permian Basin Royalty Trust's intrinsic value is estimated at $18.52. Trading at its current price of $27.99, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -33.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $37.44 (+33.7%), versus Regime Cross at $0.80 (-97.1%). This +130.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PBT?

8 of 13 models are currently active for PBT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PBT's intrinsic value at $6.45, implying -77.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PBT Rank in Oil Royalty Traders?

Among 9 Oil Royalty Traders stocks, PBT ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

Permian Basin Royalty Trust's positioning within the Oil Royalty Traders segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including basin-level economics — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PBT a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for PBT. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Permian Basin Royalty Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Permian Basin Royalty Trust scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +130.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PBT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PBT's 8 active models, average confidence is 2%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Permian Basin Royalty Trust Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil Royalty Traders Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Oil Royalty Traders stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: TPL · LB · SBR · MARPS · CRT

Frequently Asked Questions About Permian Basin Royalty Trust

What is Permian Basin Royalty Trust's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.45. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PBT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $27.99, 2 of 8 active models suggest PBT may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Permian Basin Royalty Trust's business model in Oil Royalty Traders.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for PBT?

Permian Basin Royalty Trust's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PBT?

CirclFi analyzes PBT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PBT a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for PBT at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 8 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PBT.

Unlock All 8 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access