Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) Fair Value 2026

REPX · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) trades at $38.28, versus a $59.69 median fair value across its 12 active models — 55.9% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $125.39.

Key Facts

Ticker
REPX
Price
$38.28
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +227.6% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $59.69, 55.9% above the current price of $38.28. Estimates range from $1.99 to $125.39. REPX scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. REPX’s +55.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give REPX?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($38.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $125.39 +227.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $67.90 +77.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $124.67 +225.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.39 -59.8%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is REPX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.99 to $125.39

CirclFi's 12 active models place Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) between $1.99 and $125.39 per share, a spread of 207% of the median. The median of that range — $59.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for REPX, against a current price of $38.28.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$1.99median $59.69$125.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$1.99
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$125.39
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for REPX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on REPX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $59.69. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $38.28 (implied upside of +55.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +227.6% (fair value: $125.39), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -94.8% ($1.99). The spread between these extremes — +322.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About REPX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for REPX. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for REPX is $59.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $125.39 on its own, implying +227.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does REPX Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, REPX ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places REPX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

As a oil and gas company, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. operates in a sector where reserve life index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating REPX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is REPX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns REPX a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +322.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every REPX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across REPX's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 8.9TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9GLNDGreenland Energy CompanyQOC 2.2PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.QOC 8.2EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8VOCVOC Energy TrustQOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: BSM · MGY · TPL · COP · GLND · PR · GRNT · EGY · VOC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to REPX?

7 companies across all industries closest to REPX’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 9.0CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.QOC 9.0ELMDElectromed, Inc.QOC 9.0ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0EGANeGain CorporationQOC 9.0OSPNOneSpan Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CDE · CHKP · ELMD · EC · EGAN · OSPN · NVDA

Where Does REPX Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

REPX is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)'s intrinsic value at $59.69 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.99 to $125.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $125.39 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is REPX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $38.28, 9 of 12 active models suggest REPX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $59.69, 55.9% above the current price of $38.28 — a consensus view that REPX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for REPX?

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on REPX?

CirclFi analyzes REPX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on REPX?

Of the 12 models currently active on REPX, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $125.39 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $1.99. CirclFi's published fair value for REPX is the median of that range, $59.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 207% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is REPX a value trap in 2026?

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) has a median fair value of $59.69 — 55.9% above the current price of $38.28 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/REPX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this REPX valuation
  • Financial statements: Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001001614) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for REPX as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on REPX.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for REPX Unlock All 12 — $39/mo