Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) Fair Value 2026

TALO · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) trades at $13.98. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TALO
Price
$13.98
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +149.8% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $9.05, 35.3% below the current price of $13.98. Estimates range from $2.57 to $34.92. TALO scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Talos Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$26.81 +91.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$34.92 +149.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$26.44 +89.1%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$8.61 -38.4%

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What Is Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Talos Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.48, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $13.98. With an average implied return of +3.5% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +231.4% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, CUCE sees the most upside at +149.8% (fair value: $34.92), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -81.6% ($2.57). The spread between these extremes — +231.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TALO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TALO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TALO Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, TALO ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

Talos Energy, Inc.'s positioning within the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas segment means that finding and development costs (F&D) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TALO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TALO a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Talos Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Talos Energy, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +231.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TALO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TALO's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Talos Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Talos Energy, Inc.

What is Talos Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TALO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.98, 5 of 11 active models suggest TALO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $9.05, 35.3% below the current price of $13.98 — a consensus view that TALO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Talos Energy, Inc.'s business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for TALO?

Talos Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TALO?

CirclFi analyzes TALO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TALO a value trap in 2026?

Talos Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) has a median fair value of $9.05 — 35.3% below the current price of $13.98 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TALO/ · Methodology

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