Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) Fair Value 2026

TALO · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) trades at $16.67, versus a $20.35 median fair value across its 8 active models — 22.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TALO
Price
$16.67
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +361.5% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $20.35, 22.1% above the current price of $16.67. Estimates range from $1.67 to $76.93. TALO scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TALO’s +22.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Talos Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TALO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $35.87 +115.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $44.48 +166.8%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.67 -90.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $76.93 +361.5%
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What Is TALO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.67 to $76.93

CirclFi's 8 active models place Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) between $1.67 and $76.93 per share, a spread of 370% of the median. The median of that range — $20.35 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TALO, against a current price of $16.67.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$1.67median $20.35$76.93
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$1.67
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$76.93
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TALO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TALO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Talos Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $20.35. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $16.67 (implied upside of +22.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 8 bullish models. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +361.5% (fair value: $76.93), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -90.0% ($1.67). The spread between these extremes — +451.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TALO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TALO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TALO is $20.35 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TALO Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, TALO ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Talos Energy Inc.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that finding and development costs (F&D) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TALO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TALO a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Talos Energy Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Talos Energy Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +451.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TALO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TALO's 8 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Talos Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

INRInfinity Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1GFRGreenfire Resources Ltd.QOC 6.8EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8CRTCross Timbers Royalty TrustQOC 5.4TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1CRCCalifornia Resources CorporationQOC 8.3BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: INR · GFR · EPM · EGY · BATL · REI · CRT · TPL · CRC · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TALO?

7 companies across all industries closest to TALO’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

DAIOData I/O CorporationQOC 6.9SMWBSimilarweb Ltd.QOC 6.9FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 6.9BANDBandwidth Inc.QOC 6.9UFIUnifi, Inc.QOC 6.9VMRKAvalonBay Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DAIO · SMWB · FWRG · BAND · UFI · VMRK · NVDA

Where Does TALO Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

TALO is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Talos Energy Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Talos Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Talos Energy Inc. (TALO)'s intrinsic value at $20.35 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.67 to $76.93. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TALO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.67, 5 of 8 active models suggest TALO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $20.35, 22.1% above the current price of $16.67 — a consensus view that TALO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Talos Energy Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for TALO?

Talos Energy Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TALO?

CirclFi analyzes TALO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TALO?

Of the 8 models currently active on TALO, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $76.93 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $1.67. CirclFi's published fair value for TALO is the median of that range, $20.35, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 370% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TALO a value trap in 2026?

Talos Energy Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) has a median fair value of $20.35 — 22.1% above the current price of $16.67 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TALO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TALO valuation
  • Financial statements: Talos Energy Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001724965) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TALO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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