Should You Buy Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) carries a solid Quality of Company rating of 6.9/10. Trading at $9.06, our multi-model framework evaluates whether the company's financial profile offers a favorable risk-reward setup.
The short answer: 5 of 8 CirclFi valuation models project upside for Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) at $9.06 — the model consensus leans bullish, with a Quality Score of 6.9/10 and Value-Trap risk of 18/100. The full bull case, bear case, and risk factors are below. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
What Is the Investment Case for Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) in 2026?
What Is the Bull Case vs the Bear Case for Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)?
| Bull case — $18.55 target (+104.7%) | Bear case — $0.65 target (-92.8%) |
|---|---|
| According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the First Chicago model targets a fair value of $18.55 (+104.7%), anchoring the bull case with a methodology that evaluates base, bull, and bear scenarios simultaneously. | According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the ML Residual Income model sees the stock as overvalued with a fair value of $0.65 (-92.8%), suggesting that the market price embeds overly optimistic growth assumptions. |
| Industry tailwind: automation and productivity gains could provide meaningful support for Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and margin trajectory in the Engineering & Construction space. | According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, model disagreement is high with a +197.5% spread between the most bullish and bearish models, signaling elevated analytical uncertainty. |
| Industry headwind: raw material cost inflation represents a meaningful risk for Orion Group Holdings, Inc. and its Engineering & Construction peers. |
How Does ORN Compare to Its Engineering & Construction Peers?
Valuation data pages: CDLR · ESOA · BBCP · MTRX · CDNL · FLR · RITR · IESC · ACA · FIX · STRL
Which Other Stocks Score Like ORN on Quality?
Closest companies to ORN’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10, across all industries.
- DAIO — Data I/O Corporation (QOC 6.9) · analysis
- FWRG — First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (QOC 6.9) · analysis
- UFI — Unifi, Inc. (QOC 6.9) · analysis
- WY — Weyerhaeuser Company (QOC 6.9) · analysis
- BAND — Bandwidth Inc. (QOC 6.9) · analysis
- TALO — Talos Energy Inc. (QOC 6.9) · analysis
- NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation (QOC 10.0) · analysis
Which Engineering & Construction Screens Does ORN Appear In?
So Is Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Worth Buying in 2026?
Our models don't have a clear verdict on Orion Group Holdings, Inc.. At $9.06 vs. $9.47 median fair value, the median upside of +4.6% masks significant model disagreement (+197.5% spread). With quality at 6.9/10, this is a stock where the margin of error is wide and additional fundamental research is strongly recommended.
These are quantitative model outputs, not investment recommendations. Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s future depends on factors — management execution, competitive dynamics, regulatory changes — that no algorithm can fully capture. See all 13 model estimates →
What Else Do Investors Ask About ORN Stock?
Should I buy ORN stock right now?
Based on CirclFi's multi-model analysis, 5 of 8 models see upside for ORN at $9.06. The majority of models suggest the stock trades below fair value, but investors should weigh this against the Quality Score of 6.9/10 and individual risk tolerance. This is not a buy recommendation — see our full disclaimer.
What are the biggest risks of investing in Orion Group Holdings, Inc.?
Key risks include: wide model disagreement (2749% spread), signaling high uncertainty; general market and sector-specific risks affecting Engineering & Construction companies. Always diversify and consult a financial advisor.
How does ORN compare to its competitors?
Among Engineering & Construction peers, ORN holds a Quality Score of 6.9/10. Comparable companies include CDLR (QOC 7.0), ESOA (QOC 6.8), BBCP (QOC 7.4). The relative ranking helps investors identify whether ORN offers better fundamental quality than alternatives in the same sector.
Is ORN a good long-term investment?
Long-term investment potential depends on fundamental quality and sustainable competitive advantages. ORN's Quality Score of 6.9/10 suggests moderate fundamentals — not a clear long-term hold without further research into growth catalysts. Check our full data page for all 13 model estimates.
What price should I buy ORN at?
CirclFi does not provide target buy prices or price alerts. However, our 8 active models produce fair value estimates ranging from $0.65 to $18.55. At $9.06, the stock trades within the range of model estimates. Many value investors look for a 20-30% margin of safety below intrinsic value before buying.
Want the complete picture?
See all 13 model estimates, confidence scores, and the full valuation table for ORN.
Disclaimer: This article is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models and is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, a buy/sell recommendation, or a solicitation to trade securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR, FRED, and GDELT. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Full disclaimer →
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