James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) Fair Value 2026

JRVR · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) trades at $4.14, versus a $5.36 median fair value across its 5 active models — 29.5% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JRVR
Price
$4.14
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +29.5% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $5.36, 29.5% above the current price of $4.14. Estimates range from $0.34 to $12.96. JRVR scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. JRVR’s +29.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Specialty sector median is +10.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy James River Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JRVR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.36 +29.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.34 -91.7%
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What Is JRVR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.34 to $12.96

CirclFi's 5 active models place James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) between $0.34 and $12.96 per share, a spread of 235% of the median. The median of that range — $5.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JRVR, against a current price of $4.14.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$0.34median $5.36$12.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.34
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$12.96
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JRVR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JRVR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on James River Group Holdings, Inc. at $4.14. With an estimated intrinsic value of $5.36 and 3 of 5 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +29.5%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $12.96 (+212.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.34 (-91.7%). This +304.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About JRVR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for JRVR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JRVR is $5.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JRVR Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, JRVR ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Specialty segment means that loss ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including investment income yield — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is JRVR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JRVR a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for James River Group Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, James River Group Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +304.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JRVR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JRVR's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy James River Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.0EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.8RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: STLY · OSG · EIG · MBI · RDN · NMIH · ESNT · ITIC · RYAN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JRVR?

7 companies across all industries closest to JRVR’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.9KVYOKlaviyo, Inc.QOC 6.9AGRZAgroz Inc.QOC 6.9PRCTPROCEPT BioRobotics CorporationQOC 6.9SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9AMTDAMTD IDEA GroupQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CZR · KVYO · AGRZ · PRCT · SLNG · AMTD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About James River Group Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR)'s intrinsic value at $5.36 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.34 to $12.96. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JRVR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.14, 3 of 5 active models suggest JRVR may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $5.36, 29.5% above the current price of $4.14 — a consensus view that JRVR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for JRVR?

James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JRVR?

CirclFi analyzes JRVR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JRVR?

Of the 5 models currently active on JRVR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $12.96 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.34. CirclFi's published fair value for JRVR is the median of that range, $5.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 235% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JRVR a value trap in 2026?

James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR) has a median fair value of $5.36 — 29.5% above the current price of $4.14 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JRVR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JRVR valuation
  • Financial statements: James River Group Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001620459) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JRVR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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