What Is MBIA Inc. (MBI) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MBIA Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $8.07. Trading at $6.30, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +28.2%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $20.40 (+224.1%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.94 (-69.1%). This +293.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MBIA Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About MBI?
8 of 13 models are currently active for MBI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MBI's intrinsic value at $1.94, implying -69.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MBI Rank in Surety Insurance?
Among 7 Surety Insurance stocks, MBI ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.
The Surety Insurance sector introduces analytical considerations specific to insurance industry businesses. For MBIA Inc., metrics like investment float provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is MBI a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MBI a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
8 of 13 models are active for MBIA Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MBIA Inc. earns a quality score of 5.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +293.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MBI's 8 active models, average confidence is 18%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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