Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) Fair Value 2026

OSG · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) trades at $4.64. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OSG
Price
$4.64
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +48.2% upside with 39% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OSG?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $6.87 +48.2%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $4.64. Based on our 13-model framework, Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $6.87 — representing +48.2% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OSG?

1 of 13 models are currently active for OSG. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OSG Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, OSG ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Within the Insurance - Specialty space, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. competes in an environment where expense ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is OSG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OSG a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Octave Specialty Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OSG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OSG's 1 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Octave Specialty Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

JRVRJames River Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.8STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: JRVR · MBI · STLY · NMIH · EIG · ESNT · ACT · FAF · AGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OSG?

7 companies across all industries closest to OSG’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

SKINSkinHealth Systems Inc.QOC 6.0RANIRani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.0ISCOInternational Stem Cell CorporationQOC 6.0HYLNHyliion Holdings Corp.QOC 6.0MAKOMako Mining Corp.QOC 6.0NUVBNuvation Bio Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SKIN · RANI · ISCO · HYLN · MAKO · NUVB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Octave Specialty Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG). The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OSG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.64, 1 of 1 active models suggest OSG may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for OSG?

Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OSG?

CirclFi analyzes OSG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OSG a value trap in 2026?

Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) a Quality of Company score of 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OSG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OSG valuation
  • Financial statements: Octave Specialty Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000874501) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OSG as of ; valuations recomputed .