NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) Fair Value 2026

NMIH · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) trades at $39.91, versus a $56.32 median fair value across its 5 active models — 41.1% above the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NMIH
Price
$39.91
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +41.1% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $56.32, 41.1% above the current price of $39.91. Estimates range from $41.78 to $81.23. NMIH scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NMIH’s +41.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NMI Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NMIH?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.08 +7.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $56.32 +41.1%
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What Is NMIH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $41.78 to $81.23

CirclFi's 5 active models place NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) between $41.78 and $81.23 per share, a spread of 70% of the median. The median of that range — $56.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NMIH, against a current price of $39.91.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$41.78median $56.32$81.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$41.78
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$81.23
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NMIH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for NMI Holdings, Inc.. Trading at $39.91 against an estimated intrinsic value of $56.32, 4 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +41.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $81.23 (+103.5%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $41.78 (+4.7%). This +98.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NMI Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NMIH?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NMIH. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NMIH is $56.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NMIH Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 16 Insurance - Specialty stocks, NMIH ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places NMIH in the top tier.

The Insurance - Specialty sector introduces analytical considerations specific to insurance industry businesses. For NMI Holdings, Inc., metrics like loss ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NMIH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NMIH a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for NMI Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NMI Holdings, Inc. scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +98.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NMIH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NMIH's 5 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NMI Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.9ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.0ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1JRVRJames River Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.5AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedQOC 8.1AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.QOC 7.8STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1

Read investment analysis: MBI · ESNT · OSG · ACT · JRVR · MTG · AXS · AMSF · STLY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NMIH?

7 companies across all industries closest to NMIH’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.3MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedQOC 9.3EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SBS · MCRI · GWW · TRAK · MSA · EAT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NMI Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NMI Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)'s intrinsic value at $56.32 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $41.78 to $81.23. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NMIH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.91, 5 of 5 active models suggest NMIH may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $56.32, 41.1% above the current price of $39.91 — a consensus view that NMIH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NMI Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for NMIH?

NMI Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NMIH?

CirclFi analyzes NMIH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NMIH?

Of the 5 models currently active on NMIH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $81.23 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $41.78. CirclFi's published fair value for NMIH is the median of that range, $56.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 70% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NMIH a value trap in 2026?

NMI Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) has a median fair value of $56.32 — 41.1% above the current price of $39.91 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NMIH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NMIH valuation
  • Financial statements: NMI Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001547903) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NMIH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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