Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) Fair Value 2026

SBS · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) trades at $4.82, versus a $9.94 median fair value across its 10 active models — 106.3% above the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
SBS
Price
$4.82
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +268.8% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $9.94, 106.3% above the current price of $4.82. Estimates range from $1.10 to $17.78. SBS scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SBS’s +106.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SBS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.78 +268.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.94 +64.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.35 +94.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.94 +23.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is SBS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.10 to $17.78

CirclFi's 10 active models place Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) between $1.10 and $17.78 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $9.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SBS, against a current price of $4.82.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$1.10median $9.94$17.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.10
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$17.78
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SBS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SBS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $9.94. At a current market price of $4.82, 9 of 10 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +106.3%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +268.8% (fair value: $17.78), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -77.2% ($1.10). The spread between these extremes — +346.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SBS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SBS. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SBS is $9.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.78 on its own, implying +268.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SBS Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, SBS ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places SBS in the top tier.

The Utilities - Regulated Water sector introduces analytical considerations specific to regulated utility businesses. For Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP, metrics like renewable generation mix provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SBS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SBS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP earns a quality score of 9.3/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +346.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SBS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SBS's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.3CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.1AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyQOC 7.7AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0CDZICadiz Inc.QOC 5.4CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: HTO · WTRG · CWT · PCYO · AWR · MSEX · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CDZI · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SBS?

7 companies across all industries closest to SBS’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedQOC 9.3MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3NTAPNetApp, Inc.QOC 9.3EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GWW · NMIH · MSA · MCRI · NTAP · EAT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP’s Valuation?

What is Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS)'s intrinsic value at $9.94 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.10 to $17.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SBS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.82, 9 of 10 active models suggest SBS may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $9.94, 106.3% above the current price of $4.82 — a consensus view that SBS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP's business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for SBS?

Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SBS?

CirclFi analyzes SBS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SBS?

Of the 10 models currently active on SBS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $17.78 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.10. CirclFi's published fair value for SBS is the median of that range, $9.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SBS a value trap in 2026?

Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS) has a median fair value of $9.94 — 106.3% above the current price of $4.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SBS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SBS valuation

Market data for SBS as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SBS.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for SBS Unlock All 10 — $39/mo