Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) Fair Value 2026

PCYO · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) trades at $11.43, versus a $3.61 median fair value across its 10 active models — 68.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.07.

Key Facts

Ticker
PCYO
Price
$11.43
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $3.61, 68.4% below the current price of $11.43. Estimates range from $1.93 to $10.64. PCYO scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PCYO’s -68.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pure Cycle Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PCYO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.07 -81.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.93 -83.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.65 -68.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.57 -68.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is PCYO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.93 to $10.64

CirclFi's 10 active models place Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) between $1.93 and $10.64 per share, a spread of 241% of the median. The median of that range — $3.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PCYO, against a current price of $11.43.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.93median $3.61$10.64
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.93
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$10.64
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PCYO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PCYO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pure Cycle Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $3.61, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $11.43. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-68.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $10.64 (-6.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.93 (-83.1%). This +76.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Pure Cycle Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PCYO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PCYO. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for PCYO is $3.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.07 on its own, implying -81.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PCYO Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, PCYO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places PCYO in the top tier.

Within the Utilities - Regulated Water space, Pure Cycle Corporation competes in an environment where capital investment plan often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PCYO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PCYO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Pure Cycle Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Pure Cycle Corporation is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +76.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PCYO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PCYO's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pure Cycle Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.3CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyQOC 7.7AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0CDZICadiz Inc.QOC 5.4CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: SBS · HTO · WTRG · CWT · AWR · MSEX · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CDZI · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PCYO?

7 companies across all industries closest to PCYO’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

CCSIConsensus Cloud Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.1BNYThe Bank of New York Mellon CorporationQOC 8.1JANLJanel CorporationQOC 8.1DAVEDave Inc.QOC 8.1INFUInfuSystem Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1ARMKAramarkQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CCSI · BNY · JANL · DAVE · INFU · ARMK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pure Cycle Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Pure Cycle Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO)'s intrinsic value at $3.61 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.93 to $10.64. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.07 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PCYO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.43, 0 of 10 active models suggest PCYO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $3.61, 68.4% below the current price of $11.43 — a consensus view that PCYO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pure Cycle Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for PCYO?

Pure Cycle Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PCYO?

CirclFi analyzes PCYO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PCYO?

Of the 10 models currently active on PCYO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $10.64 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.93. CirclFi's published fair value for PCYO is the median of that range, $3.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 241% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PCYO a value trap in 2026?

Pure Cycle Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) has a median fair value of $3.61 — 68.4% below the current price of $11.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PCYO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PCYO valuation
  • Financial statements: Pure Cycle Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000276720) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PCYO as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PCYO.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for PCYO Unlock All 10 — $39/mo