Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Fair Value 2026

HON · Conglomerates ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Honeywell International Inc. (HON) trades at $220.39, versus a $197.99 median fair value across its 12 active models — 10.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $177.34.

Key Facts

Ticker
HON
Price
$220.39
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +287.6% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Honeywell International Inc. (HON) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $197.99, 10.2% below the current price of $220.39. Estimates range from $115.06 to $854.34. HON scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HON’s -10.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Conglomerates sector median is -20.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Honeywell International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HON?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($220.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $177.34 -19.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $180.31 -18.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $215.66 -2.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $854.34 +287.6%
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What Is HON's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $115.06 to $854.34

CirclFi's 12 active models place Honeywell International Inc. (HON) between $115.06 and $854.34 per share, a spread of 373% of the median. The median of that range — $197.99 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HON, against a current price of $220.39.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · First Chicago
$115.06median $197.99$854.34
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$115.06
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$854.34
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HON. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HON, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Honeywell International Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $197.99, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $220.39. With a median implied return of -10.2% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +335.4% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +287.6% (fair value: $854.34), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -47.8% ($115.06). The spread between these extremes — +335.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HON?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HON. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HON is $197.99 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $177.34 on its own, implying -19.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HON Rank in Conglomerates?

Among 31 Conglomerates stocks, HON ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places HON in the top tier.

Within the Conglomerates space, Honeywell International Inc. competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is HON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HON a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Honeywell International Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Honeywell International Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +335.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HON's 12 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Honeywell International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Conglomerates Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Conglomerates stocks with 13-model coverage

DLXDeluxe CorporationQOC 8.3RCMTRCM Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3OTTROtter Tail CorporationQOC 8.6SEBSeaboard CorporationQOC 8.1VMIValmont Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0GHCGraham Holdings CompanyQOC 7.8BBUCBrookfield Business CorporationQOC 7.1NNBRNN, Inc.QOC 5.7TMGITransglobal Management Group, Inc.QOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: DLX · RCMT · OTTR · SEB · VMI · GHC · BBUC · NNBR · TMGI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HON?

7 companies across all industries closest to HON’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

LPGDorian LPG Ltd.QOC 8.3NVSTEnvista Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3LZBLa-Z-Boy IncorporatedQOC 8.3MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LPG · NVST · WFC · PSX · LZB · MKTX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Honeywell International Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Honeywell International Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Honeywell International Inc. (HON)'s intrinsic value at $197.99 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $115.06 to $854.34. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $177.34 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $220.39, 5 of 12 active models suggest HON may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $197.99, 10.2% below the current price of $220.39 — a consensus view that HON is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Honeywell International Inc.'s business model in Conglomerates.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for HON?

Honeywell International Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HON?

CirclFi analyzes HON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HON?

Of the 12 models currently active on HON, First Chicago is the most bullish at $854.34 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $115.06. CirclFi's published fair value for HON is the median of that range, $197.99, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 373% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HON a value trap in 2026?

Honeywell International Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Honeywell International Inc. (HON) has a median fair value of $197.99 — 10.2% below the current price of $220.39 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HON valuation
  • Financial statements: Honeywell International Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000773840) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HON as of ; valuations recomputed .

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