RTX Corporation (RTX) Fair Value 2026

RTX · Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, RTX Corporation (RTX) trades at $196.44, approximately 1047% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $17.13. QOC: 4.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RTX
Price
$196.44
Quality Score
4.6/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($196.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$17.13 -91.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$16.35 -91.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$75.44 -61.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$126.44 -35.6%

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What Is RTX Corporation (RTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, RTX Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $92.61. Trading at its current price of $196.44, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -52.9%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $194.02 (-1.2%), versus EPV at $16.35 (-91.7%). This +90.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RTX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for RTX. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates RTX's intrinsic value at $17.13, implying -91.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RTX Rank in Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts?

Among 6 Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts stocks, RTX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

RTX Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is RTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RTX a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for RTX Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, RTX Corporation scores 4.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RTX's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy RTX Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HEI · HON · SARO · SIF · TATT

Frequently Asked Questions About RTX Corporation

What is RTX Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, RTX Corporation (RTX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $17.13. The Quality of Company score is 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $196.44, 0 of 12 active models suggest RTX may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits RTX Corporation's business model in Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.6 mean for RTX?

RTX Corporation's QOC of 4.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RTX?

CirclFi analyzes RTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RTX a value trap in 2026?

RTX Corporation's Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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