SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) Fair Value 2026

SIF · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) trades at $22.21, versus a $9.32 median fair value across its 6 active models — 58.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SIF
Price
$22.21
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $9.32, 58.1% below the current price of $22.21. Estimates range from $1.77 to $20.05. SIF scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SIF’s -58.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SIFCO Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SIF?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.85 -64.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.75 -78.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.77 -92.0%
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What Is SIF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.77 to $20.05

CirclFi's 6 active models place SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) between $1.77 and $20.05 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $9.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SIF, against a current price of $22.21.

Low · EROICHigh · FTNN
$1.77median $9.32$20.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$1.77
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$20.05
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SIF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SIF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SIFCO Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $9.32. Trading at its current price of $22.21, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -58.1%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at -9.7% (fair value: $20.05), while EROIC is the most conservative at -92.0% ($1.77). The spread between these extremes — +82.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SIF?

6 of 13 models are currently active for SIF. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SIF is $9.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SIF Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, SIF ranks #54 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to defense contractor businesses. For SIFCO Industries, Inc., metrics like commercial deliveries provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SIF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SIF a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for SIFCO Industries, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, SIFCO Industries, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +82.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SIF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SIF's 6 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SIFCO Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.QOC 6.3MNTSMomentus Inc.QOC 6.1PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4BETABETA Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.9PLPlanet Labs PBCQOC 6.4DUKRDUKE Robotics Corp.QOC 5.9DFNST3 Defense Inc.QOC 4.6WWDWoodward, Inc.QOC 8.9FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.QOC 7.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: FLY · MNTS · PEW · BETA · PL · DUKR · DFNS · WWD · FTAI · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SIF?

7 companies across all industries closest to SIF’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

BHSTBioHarvest Sciences Inc. Common StockQOC 6.2TXMDTherapeuticsMD, Inc.QOC 6.2HIVEHIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.QOC 6.2BRAGBragg Gaming Group Inc.QOC 6.2LEXXLexaria Bioscience Corp.QOC 6.2OXBROxbridge Re Holdings LimitedQOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BHST · TXMD · HIVE · BRAG · LEXX · OXBR · NVDA

Where Does SIF Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

SIF is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SIFCO Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is SIFCO Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF)'s intrinsic value at $9.32 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.77 to $20.05. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SIF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.21, 0 of 6 active models suggest SIF may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $9.32, 58.1% below the current price of $22.21 — a consensus view that SIF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SIFCO Industries, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for SIF?

SIFCO Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SIF?

CirclFi analyzes SIF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SIF?

Of the 6 models currently active on SIF, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $20.05 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $1.77. CirclFi's published fair value for SIF is the median of that range, $9.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SIF a value trap in 2026?

SIFCO Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) has a median fair value of $9.32 — 58.1% below the current price of $22.21 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SIF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SIF valuation
  • Financial statements: SIFCO Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000090168) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SIF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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