AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Fair Value 2026

AHCO · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) trades at $5.80, versus a $20.18 median fair value across its 7 active models — 247.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.73.

Key Facts

Ticker
AHCO
Price
$5.80
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +247.9% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $20.18, 247.9% above the current price of $5.80. Estimates range from $2.07 to $32.14. AHCO scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AHCO’s +247.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AdaptHealth Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AHCO?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.73 +85.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.18 +247.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.07 -64.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including PWERM, Sentiment SOTP, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is AHCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.07 to $32.14

CirclFi's 7 active models place AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) between $2.07 and $32.14 per share, a spread of 149% of the median. The median of that range — $20.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AHCO, against a current price of $5.80.

Low · EROICHigh · FTNN
$2.07median $20.18$32.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$2.07
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$32.14
Model agreement6 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AHCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AHCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AdaptHealth Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $20.18. At a current market price of $5.80, 6 of 7 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +247.9%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +454.1% (fair value: $32.14), while EROIC is the most conservative at -64.4% ($2.07). The spread between these extremes — +518.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AHCO?

7 of 13 models are currently active for AHCO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AHCO is $20.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.73 on its own, implying +85.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AHCO Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, AHCO ranks #78 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

As a healthcare company, AdaptHealth Corp. operates in a sector where pipeline depth and stage distribution is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AHCO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AHCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AHCO a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for AdaptHealth Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AdaptHealth Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +518.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AHCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AHCO's 7 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AdaptHealth Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

PETVPetVivo Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.QOC 6.2APYXApyx Medical CorporationQOC 6.3STIMNeuronetics, Inc.QOC 6.2ECORelectroCore, Inc.QOC 6.4NSPRInspireMD, Inc.QOC 6.1ELUTElutia Inc.QOC 5.2BWAYBrainsWay Ltd.QOC 2.6SRTSSensus Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.3IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: PETV · OFIX · APYX · STIM · ECOR · NSPR · ELUT · BWAY · SRTS · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AHCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to AHCO’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

NTLAIntellia Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.3XFORX4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.3SMJFSMJ International Holdings Inc.QOC 6.3CVRChicago Rivet & Machine Co.QOC 6.3AERGApplied Energetics, Inc.QOC 6.3UPLDUpland Software, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTLA · XFOR · SMJF · CVR · AERG · UPLD · NVDA

Where Does AHCO Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

AHCO is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AdaptHealth Corp.’s Valuation?

What is AdaptHealth Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO)'s intrinsic value at $20.18 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.07 to $32.14. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.73 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AHCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.80, 6 of 7 active models suggest AHCO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $20.18, 247.9% above the current price of $5.80 — a consensus view that AHCO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AdaptHealth Corp.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for AHCO?

AdaptHealth Corp.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AHCO?

CirclFi analyzes AHCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AHCO?

Of the 7 models currently active on AHCO, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $32.14 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $2.07. CirclFi's published fair value for AHCO is the median of that range, $20.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 149% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AHCO a value trap in 2026?

AdaptHealth Corp.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) has a median fair value of $20.18 — 247.9% above the current price of $5.80 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AHCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AHCO valuation
  • Financial statements: AdaptHealth Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001725255) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AHCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AHCO.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for AHCO Unlock All 7 — $39/mo