What Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.55. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-65.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +41.8% (fair value: $30.56), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -98.7% ($0.28). The spread between these extremes — +140.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About FLY?
12 of 13 models are currently active for FLY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FLY's intrinsic value at $9.05, implying -58.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does FLY Rank in Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts?
Among 9 Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts stocks, FLY ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.
Within the Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts space, Firefly Aerospace Inc. competes in an environment where EBIT per unit often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is FLY a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for FLY. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Firefly Aerospace Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +140.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every FLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across FLY's 12 active models, average confidence is 18%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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