Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Fair Value 2026

FLY · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) trades at $21.26, versus a $5.18 median fair value across its 2 active models — 75.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FLY
Price
$21.26
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $5.18, 75.7% below the current price of $21.26. Estimates range from $3.22 to $7.13. FLY scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FLY’s -75.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FLY?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $3.22 -84.9%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $7.13 -66.4%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.18, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.26. With 2 out of 2 models flagging downside (-75.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About FLY?

2 of 13 models are currently active for FLY. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FLY is $5.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FLY Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, FLY ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Within the Aerospace & Defense space, Firefly Aerospace Inc. competes in an environment where free cash flow conversion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is FLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FLY a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Firefly Aerospace Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+18.4% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FLY's 2 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4SIFSIFCO Industries, Inc.QOC 6.2PLPlanet Labs PBCQOC 6.4MNTSMomentus Inc.QOC 6.1SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5BETABETA Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.9XTIAXTI Aerospace, Inc.QOC 4.7ISSCInnovative Solutions and Support IncQOC 8.9EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: PEW · SIF · PL · MNTS · SPCE · BETA · XTIA · ISSC · EMBJ · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FLY?

7 companies across all industries closest to FLY’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

GLXGGalaxy Payroll Group LimitedQOC 6.3RBRKRubrik, Inc.QOC 6.3KLCKinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.QOC 6.3MSTRStrategy IncQOC 6.3CATOThe Cato CorporationQOC 6.3GLEGlobal Engine Group Holding LimitedQOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GLXG · RBRK · KLC · MSTR · CATO · GLE · NVDA

Where Does FLY Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

FLY is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Firefly Aerospace Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)'s intrinsic value at $5.18 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.22 to $7.13. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.26, 0 of 2 active models suggest FLY may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $5.18, 75.7% below the current price of $21.26 — a consensus view that FLY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for FLY?

Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FLY?

CirclFi analyzes FLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FLY a value trap in 2026?

Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a median fair value of $5.18 — 75.7% below the current price of $21.26 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FLY valuation
  • Financial statements: Firefly Aerospace Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001860160) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FLY as of ; valuations recomputed .