Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Fair Value 2026

LMT · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) trades at $563.85, versus a $584.77 median fair value across its 9 active models — 3.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $596.10.

Key Facts

Ticker
LMT
Price
$563.85
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +5.7% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $584.77, within 3.7% of the current price of $563.85. Estimates range from $217.97 to $1439.78. LMT scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LMT’s +3.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lockheed Martin Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LMT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($563.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $596.10 +5.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $520.41 -7.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $574.46 +1.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $217.97 -61.3%
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What Is LMT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $217.97 to $1439.78

CirclFi's 9 active models place Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) between $217.97 and $1439.78 per share, a spread of 209% of the median. The median of that range — $584.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LMT, against a current price of $563.85.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$217.97median $584.77$1439.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$217.97
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1439.78
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LMT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LMT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lockheed Martin Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $584.77, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $563.85. While the median implied return is +3.7%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +216.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $1,439.78 (+155.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $217.97 (-61.3%). This +216.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Lockheed Martin Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LMT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for LMT. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LMT is $584.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $596.10 on its own, implying +5.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LMT Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, LMT ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places LMT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Within the Aerospace & Defense space, Lockheed Martin Corporation competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is LMT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LMT a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Lockheed Martin Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Lockheed Martin Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +216.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LMT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LMT's 9 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lockheed Martin Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1CAECAE Inc.QOC 7.8CVUCPI Aerostructures, Inc.QOC 6.5FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.QOC 4.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BYRN · SWBI · AIR · LHX · CDRE · CAE · CVU · FJET · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LMT?

7 companies across all industries closest to LMT’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

ENTGEntegris, Inc.QOC 8.0BWBBridgewater Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.0TGTTarget CorporationQOC 8.0LCIILCI IndustriesQOC 8.0NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedQOC 8.0FTVFortive CorporationQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ENTG · BWB · TGT · LCII · NOAH · FTV · NVDA

Where Does LMT Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

LMT is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lockheed Martin Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Lockheed Martin Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)'s intrinsic value at $584.77 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $217.97 to $1439.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $596.10 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LMT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $563.85, 6 of 9 active models suggest LMT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $584.77, within 3.7% of the current price of $563.85 — a consensus view that LMT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lockheed Martin Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for LMT?

Lockheed Martin Corporation's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LMT?

CirclFi analyzes LMT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LMT?

Of the 9 models currently active on LMT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1439.78 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $217.97. CirclFi's published fair value for LMT is the median of that range, $584.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 209% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LMT a value trap in 2026?

Lockheed Martin Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) has a median fair value of $584.77 — within 3.7% of the current price of $563.85 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LMT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LMT valuation
  • Financial statements: Lockheed Martin Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000936468) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LMT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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