Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) Fair Value 2026

BYRN · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) trades at $3.60, versus a $6.36 median fair value across its 9 active models — 76.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
BYRN
Price
$3.60
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +283.0% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $6.36, 76.6% above the current price of $3.60. Estimates range from $0.97 to $13.79. BYRN scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BYRN’s +76.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Byrna Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BYRN?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.97 -73.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.36 +76.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $13.79 +283.0%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $1.58 -56.1%
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What Is BYRN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.97 to $13.79

CirclFi's 9 active models place Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) between $0.97 and $13.79 per share, a spread of 202% of the median. The median of that range — $6.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BYRN, against a current price of $3.60.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$0.97median $6.36$13.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.97
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$13.79
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BYRN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BYRN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Byrna Technologies Inc. at $3.60. With an estimated intrinsic value of $6.36 and 5 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +76.6%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $13.79 (+283.0%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.97 (-73.0%). This +356.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Byrna Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BYRN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for BYRN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BYRN is $6.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.97 on its own, implying -73.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BYRN Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, BYRN ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places BYRN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace and defense sector, Byrna Technologies Inc. operates in a sector where backlog-to-revenue ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BYRN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BYRN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BYRN a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Byrna Technologies Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Byrna Technologies Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +356.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BYRN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BYRN's 9 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Byrna Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5HONAHoneywell Aerospace Inc.QOC 4.9TATTTAT Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.5BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: AIR · LMT · CDRE · SWBI · VVX · LHX · RCAT · HONA · TATT · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BYRN?

7 companies across all industries closest to BYRN’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

LSCCLattice Semiconductor CorporationQOC 8.1ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.1CIACitizens, Inc.QOC 8.1DELLDell Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.QOC 8.1DBXDropbox, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LSCC · ARES · CIA · DELL · CHT · DBX · NVDA

Where Does BYRN Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

BYRN is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Byrna Technologies Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Byrna Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN)'s intrinsic value at $6.36 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.97 to $13.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BYRN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.60, 5 of 9 active models suggest BYRN may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $6.36, 76.6% above the current price of $3.60 — a consensus view that BYRN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Byrna Technologies Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for BYRN?

Byrna Technologies Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BYRN?

CirclFi analyzes BYRN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BYRN?

Of the 9 models currently active on BYRN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $13.79 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.97. CirclFi's published fair value for BYRN is the median of that range, $6.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 202% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BYRN a value trap in 2026?

Byrna Technologies Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) has a median fair value of $6.36 — 76.6% above the current price of $3.60 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BYRN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BYRN valuation
  • Financial statements: Byrna Technologies Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001354866) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BYRN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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