T3 Defense Inc. (DFNS) Fair Value 2026

DFNS · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, T3 Defense Inc. (DFNS) trades at $12.19. QOC: 4.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DFNS
Price
$12.19
Quality Score
4.6/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +98.0% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DFNS?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Low Conviction
 $24.14 +98.0%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is T3 Defense Inc. (DFNS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, T3 Defense Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $12.19. Based on our 13-model framework, T3 Defense Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $24.14 — representing +98.0% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DFNS?

1 of 13 models are currently active for DFNS. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DFNS Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, DFNS ranks #77 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace company, T3 Defense Inc. operates in a sector where aftermarket revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating DFNS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is DFNS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DFNS a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for T3 Defense Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, T3 Defense Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.6/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DFNS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DFNS's 1 active models, average confidence is 15%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy T3 Defense Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

XTIAXTI Aerospace, Inc.QOC 4.7MDAMDA Space Ltd.QOC 4.4EVEXEve Holding, Inc.QOC 4.7CTGLCitrine Global CorpQOC 4.1DFSCDEFSEC Technologies Inc.QOC 4.8PHGEBiomX Inc.QOC 4.0ISSCInnovative Solutions and Support IncQOC 8.9FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.QOC 7.8FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.QOC 6.3BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: XTIA · MDA · EVEX · CTGL · DFSC · PHGE · ISSC · FTAI · FLY · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DFNS?

7 companies across all industries closest to DFNS’s Quality of Company score of 4.6/10.

ACXPAcurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.6VPLMVoip-Pal.com Inc.QOC 4.6RPGLRepublic Power Group LimitedQOC 4.6AQBAquaBounty Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.6OGENOragenics, Inc.QOC 4.6AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.QOC 4.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACXP · VPLM · RPGL · AQB · OGEN · AMBP · NVDA

Where Does DFNS Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

DFNS is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About T3 Defense Inc.’s Valuation?

What is T3 Defense Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for T3 Defense Inc. (DFNS). The Quality of Company score is 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DFNS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.19, 1 of 1 active models suggest DFNS may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits T3 Defense Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.6 mean for DFNS?

T3 Defense Inc.'s QOC of 4.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DFNS?

CirclFi analyzes DFNS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DFNS a value trap in 2026?

T3 Defense Inc.'s Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns T3 Defense Inc. (DFNS) a Quality of Company score of 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DFNS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DFNS valuation
  • Financial statements: T3 Defense Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001787518) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DFNS as of ; valuations recomputed .