Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) Fair Value 2026

EVEX · Aircraft ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) trades at $2.38, approximately 330% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.55. QOC: 4.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EVEX
Price
$2.38
Quality Score
4.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +39.5% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $1.11, 53.4% below the current price of $2.38. Estimates range from $0.46 to $3.31. EVEX scores 4.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Eve Holding, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.55 -76.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.11 -53.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $3.31 +39.5%

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What Is Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Eve Holding, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $1.66. Trading at $2.38, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -30.0%), as 4 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $3.31 (+39.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.46 (-80.8%). This +120.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Eve Holding, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About EVEX?

7 of 13 models are currently active for EVEX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates EVEX's intrinsic value at $0.55, implying -76.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EVEX Rank in Aircraft?

Among 10 Aircraft stocks, EVEX ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Eve Holding, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EVEX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EVEX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Eve Holding, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Eve Holding, Inc. earns a quality score of 4.6/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EVEX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EVEX's 7 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Eve Holding, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aircraft Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Aircraft stocks with 13-model coverage

EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.4BETABeta Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2BABoeing Company (The)QOC 5.7JOBYJoby Aviation, Inc.QOC 5.7UAVSAgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc.QOC 5.7DPRODraganfly Inc.QOC 5.5EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd.QOC 5.5HOVRNew Horizon Aircraft Ltd.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: EMBJ · BETA · BA · JOBY · UAVS

Frequently Asked Questions About Eve Holding, Inc.

What is Eve Holding, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.55. The Quality of Company score is 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EVEX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.38, 3 of 7 active models suggest EVEX may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $1.11, 53.4% below the current price of $2.38 — a consensus view that EVEX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Eve Holding, Inc.'s business model in Aircraft.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.6 mean for EVEX?

Eve Holding, Inc.'s QOC of 4.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EVEX?

CirclFi analyzes EVEX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is EVEX a value trap in 2026?

Eve Holding, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) has a median fair value of $1.11 — 53.4% below the current price of $2.38 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EVEX/ · Methodology

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