What Is MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MDA Space Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.93. Trading at its current price of $33.89, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -44.1%. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $48.75 (+43.9%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.86 (-88.6%). This +132.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MDA Space Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About MDA?
12 of 13 models are currently active for MDA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MDA's intrinsic value at $11.62, implying -65.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MDA Rank in Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts?
Among 9 Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts stocks, MDA ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.
MDA Space Ltd.'s positioning within the Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is MDA a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MDA. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for MDA Space Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MDA Space Ltd. scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MDA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MDA's 12 active models, average confidence is 9%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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