XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) Fair Value 2026

XTIA · Services-Computer Programming Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (52/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) trades at $1.50, approximately 572% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.22. QOC: 4.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 52/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XTIA
Price
$1.50
Quality Score
4.3/10
Value Trap Risk
52/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +162.4% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 52 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $0.81, 45.9% below the current price of $1.50. Estimates range from $0.22 to $3.94. XTIA scores 4.3/10 on fundamental quality and 52/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy XTI Aerospace, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.22 -85.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$3.94 +162.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.21 -19.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$0.42 -72.2%

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What Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, XTI Aerospace, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.14. Trading at its current price of $1.50, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -24.2%. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +162.4% (fair value: $3.94), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -85.1% ($0.22). The spread between these extremes — +247.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About XTIA?

12 of 13 models are currently active for XTIA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates XTIA's intrinsic value at $0.22, implying -85.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XTIA Rank in Services-Computer Programming Services?

Among 30 Services-Computer Programming Services stocks, XTIA ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Programming Services Stocks →

XTI Aerospace, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is XTIA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XTIA a score of 52/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for XTI Aerospace, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, XTI Aerospace, Inc. earns a quality score of 4.3/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +247.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XTIA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XTIA's 12 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy XTI Aerospace, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Programming Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Programming Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: DOCS · ISSC · CTSH · EPAM · WIT

See all Services-Computer Programming Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About XTI Aerospace, Inc.

What is XTI Aerospace, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.22. The Quality of Company score is 4.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XTIA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.50, 2 of 12 active models suggest XTIA may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $0.81, 45.9% below the current price of $1.50 — a consensus view that XTIA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits XTI Aerospace, Inc.'s business model in Services-Computer Programming Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.3 mean for XTIA?

XTI Aerospace, Inc.'s QOC of 4.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XTIA?

CirclFi analyzes XTIA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is XTIA a value trap in 2026?

XTI Aerospace, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 52/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) has a median fair value of $0.81 — 45.9% below the current price of $1.50 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XTIA/ · Methodology

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