Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Fair Value 2026

HII · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) trades at $297.29, versus a $366.13 median fair value across its 11 active models — 23.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $508.34.

Key Facts

Ticker
HII
Price
$297.29
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +71.0% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $366.13, 23.2% above the current price of $297.29. Estimates range from $144.36 to $916.73. HII scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HII’s +23.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HII?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($297.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $508.34 +71.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $199.69 -32.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $401.52 +35.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $144.36 -51.4%
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What Is HII's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $144.36 to $916.73

CirclFi's 11 active models place Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) between $144.36 and $916.73 per share, a spread of 211% of the median. The median of that range — $366.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HII, against a current price of $297.29.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$144.36median $366.13$916.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$144.36
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$916.73
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HII. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HII, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $366.13, suggesting a +23.2% median upside from the current price of $297.29. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $916.73 (+208.4%), versus EROIC at $144.36 (-51.4%). This +259.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HII?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HII. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HII is $366.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $508.34 on its own, implying +71.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HII Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, HII ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to aerospace company businesses. For Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., metrics like free cash flow conversion provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HII a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HII a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +259.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HII valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HII's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.QOC 7.8SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8LOARLoar Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6CAECAE Inc.QOC 7.8KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.QOC 7.4MNTSMomentus Inc.QOC 6.1MDAMDA Space Ltd.QOC 4.4HEIHEICO CorporationQOC 8.9BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: FTAI · SARO · EMBJ · LOAR · CAE · KTOS · MNTS · MDA · HEI · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HII?

7 companies across all industries closest to HII’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.7WETHWetouch Technology Inc.QOC 7.7RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7FPHFive Point Holdings, LLCQOC 7.7ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.QOC 7.7CPNGCoupang, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CZWI · WETH · RICK · FPH · ECG · CPNG · NVDA

Where Does HII Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

HII is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII)'s intrinsic value at $366.13 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $144.36 to $916.73. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $508.34 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HII overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $297.29, 8 of 11 active models suggest HII may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $366.13, 23.2% above the current price of $297.29 — a consensus view that HII is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for HII?

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HII?

CirclFi analyzes HII with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HII?

Of the 11 models currently active on HII, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $916.73 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $144.36. CirclFi's published fair value for HII is the median of that range, $366.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 211% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HII a value trap in 2026?

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) has a median fair value of $366.13 — 23.2% above the current price of $297.29 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HII/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HII valuation

Market data for HII as of ; valuations recomputed .

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