General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Fair Value 2026

GD · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, General Dynamics Corporation (GD) trades at $380.06, versus a $350.69 median fair value across its 10 active models — 7.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $521.55.

Key Facts

Ticker
GD
Price
$380.06
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +37.2% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, General Dynamics Corporation (GD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $350.69, within 7.7% of the current price of $380.06. Estimates range from $152.82 to $818.16. GD scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GD’s -7.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy General Dynamics Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($380.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $521.55 +37.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $265.27 -30.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $348.96 -8.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $152.82 -59.8%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is GD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $152.82 to $818.16

CirclFi's 10 active models place General Dynamics Corporation (GD) between $152.82 and $818.16 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $350.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GD, against a current price of $380.06.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$152.82median $350.69$818.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$152.82
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$818.16
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on General Dynamics Corporation at its current price of $380.06. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $350.69 (-7.7% vs price), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +115.3% (fair value: $818.16), while EROIC is the most conservative at -59.8% ($152.82). The spread between these extremes — +175.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GD. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GD is $350.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $521.55 on its own, implying +37.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GD Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, GD ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places GD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Within the Aerospace & Defense space, General Dynamics Corporation competes in an environment where backlog-to-revenue ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GD a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for General Dynamics Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, General Dynamics Corporation is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +175.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GD's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy General Dynamics Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.QOC 8.5ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4RTXRTX CorporationQOC 8.5TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3DCODucommun IncorporatedQOC 7.0EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd.QOC 5.3XERIXeriant, Inc.QOC 3.7BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BWXT · PKE · AXON · ATRO · RTX · TXT · DCO · EVTL · XERI · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GD?

7 companies across all industries closest to GD’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4HNNAHennessy Advisors, Inc.QOC 8.4BLBlackLine, Inc.QOC 8.4HNRGHallador Energy CompanyQOC 8.4WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc.QOC 8.4HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMPY · HNNA · BL · HNRG · WMB · HST · NVDA

Where Does GD Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

GD is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About General Dynamics Corporation’s Valuation?

What is General Dynamics Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts General Dynamics Corporation (GD)'s intrinsic value at $350.69 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $152.82 to $818.16. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $521.55 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $380.06, 3 of 10 active models suggest GD may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $350.69, within 7.7% of the current price of $380.06 — a consensus view that GD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits General Dynamics Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for GD?

General Dynamics Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GD?

CirclFi analyzes GD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GD?

Of the 10 models currently active on GD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $818.16 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $152.82. CirclFi's published fair value for GD is the median of that range, $350.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GD a value trap in 2026?

General Dynamics Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, General Dynamics Corporation (GD) has a median fair value of $350.69 — within 7.7% of the current price of $380.06 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GD valuation
  • Financial statements: General Dynamics Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000040533) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GD as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on GD.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for GD Unlock All 10 — $39/mo