BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Fair Value 2026

BWXT · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) trades at $155.85, versus a $60.93 median fair value across its 5 active models — 60.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BWXT
Price
$155.85
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $60.93, 60.9% below the current price of $155.85. Estimates range from $5.21 to $208.51. BWXT scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BWXT’s -60.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BWX Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BWXT?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($155.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $60.93 -60.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.02 -89.1%
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What Is BWXT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $5.21 to $208.51

CirclFi's 5 active models place BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) between $5.21 and $208.51 per share, a spread of 334% of the median. The median of that range — $60.93 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BWXT, against a current price of $155.85.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$5.21median $60.93$208.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$5.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$208.51
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BWXT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BWXT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BWX Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $60.93, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $155.85. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-60.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +33.8% (fair value: $208.51), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -96.7% ($5.21). The spread between these extremes — +130.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BWXT?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BWXT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BWXT is $60.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BWXT Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, BWXT ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places BWXT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Within the Aerospace & Defense space, BWX Technologies, Inc. competes in an environment where free cash flow conversion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BWXT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BWXT a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for BWX Technologies, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, BWX Technologies, Inc. is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +130.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BWXT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BWXT's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BWX Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.QOC 8.5GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQOC 8.4RTXRTX CorporationQOC 8.5PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.QOC 8.6ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0VWAVVisionWave Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.3ELMTThe Elmet Group Co.QOC 3.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: AXON · GD · RTX · PKE · CODA · ATRO · RKLB · VWAV · ELMT · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BWXT?

7 companies across all industries closest to BWXT’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.4STRTStrattec Security CorporationQOC 8.4TILEInterface, Inc.QOC 8.4WBWeibo CorporationQOC 8.4DKSDICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.QOC 8.4FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IRS · STRT · TILE · WB · DKS · FHB · NVDA

Where Does BWXT Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

BWXT is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BWX Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is BWX Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)'s intrinsic value at $60.93 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.21 to $208.51. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BWXT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $155.85, 1 of 5 active models suggest BWXT may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $60.93, 60.9% below the current price of $155.85 — a consensus view that BWXT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BWX Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for BWXT?

BWX Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BWXT?

CirclFi analyzes BWXT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BWXT?

Of the 5 models currently active on BWXT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $208.51 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $5.21. CirclFi's published fair value for BWXT is the median of that range, $60.93, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 334% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BWXT a value trap in 2026?

BWX Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) has a median fair value of $60.93 — 60.9% below the current price of $155.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BWXT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BWXT valuation
  • Financial statements: BWX Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001486957) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BWXT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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