Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) Fair Value 2026

OPXS · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) trades at $10.24, versus a $8.27 median fair value across its 11 active models — 19.2% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.61.

Key Facts

Ticker
OPXS
Price
$10.24
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +141.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $8.27, 19.2% below the current price of $10.24. Estimates range from $3.05 to $24.70. OPXS scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OPXS’s -19.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Optex Systems Holdings, Inc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OPXS?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.61 -35.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.35 -38.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.55 +3.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $24.70 +141.2%
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What Is OPXS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.05 to $24.70

CirclFi's 11 active models place Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) between $3.05 and $24.70 per share, a spread of 262% of the median. The median of that range — $8.27 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OPXS, against a current price of $10.24.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$3.05median $8.27$24.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.05
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$24.70
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OPXS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OPXS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $8.27, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $10.24. While the median implied return is -19.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +211.5% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $24.70 (+141.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.05 (-70.2%). This +211.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OPXS?

11 of 13 models are currently active for OPXS. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OPXS is $8.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.61 on its own, implying -35.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OPXS Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, OPXS ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places OPXS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that free cash flow conversion plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including space and satellite demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OPXS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OPXS a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +211.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OPXS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OPXS's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Optex Systems Holdings, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.QOC 9.0BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4ISSCInnovative Solutions and Support IncQOC 8.9TATTTAT Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.5WWDWoodward, Inc.QOC 8.9LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9PLPlanet Labs PBCQOC 6.4DFSCDEFSEC Technologies Inc.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: HWM · DRS · BUKS · ISSC · TATT · WWD · LHX · PL · DFSC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OPXS?

7 companies across all industries closest to OPXS’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

PIPRPiper Sandler CompaniesQOC 9.1NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1HUBBHubbell IncorporatedQOC 9.1TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.QOC 9.1ESTCElastic N.V.QOC 9.1CRSCarpenter Technology CorporationQOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PIPR · NDSN · HUBB · TRV · ESTC · CRS · NVDA

Where Does OPXS Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

OPXS is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Optex Systems Holdings, Inc’s Valuation?

What is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS)'s intrinsic value at $8.27 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.05 to $24.70. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.61 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OPXS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.24, 5 of 11 active models suggest OPXS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $8.27, 19.2% below the current price of $10.24 — a consensus view that OPXS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for OPXS?

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OPXS?

CirclFi analyzes OPXS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OPXS?

Of the 11 models currently active on OPXS, First Chicago is the most bullish at $24.70 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.05. CirclFi's published fair value for OPXS is the median of that range, $8.27, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 262% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OPXS a value trap in 2026?

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) has a median fair value of $8.27 — 19.2% below the current price of $10.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OPXS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OPXS valuation
  • Financial statements: Optex Systems Holdings, Inc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001397016) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OPXS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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