Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Fair Value 2026

NVMI · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nova Ltd. (NVMI) trades at $370.92, versus a $119.40 median fair value across its 7 active models — 67.8% below the current price. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $85.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVMI
Price
$370.92
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Nova Ltd. (NVMI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $119.40, 67.8% below the current price of $370.92. Estimates range from $51.68 to $601.05. NVMI scores 9.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NVMI’s -67.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector median is -71.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nova Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVMI?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($370.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $85.42 -77.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $119.40 -67.8%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $138.68 -62.6%
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What Is NVMI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $51.68 to $601.05

CirclFi's 7 active models place Nova Ltd. (NVMI) between $51.68 and $601.05 per share, a spread of 460% of the median. The median of that range — $119.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NVMI, against a current price of $370.92.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$51.68median $119.40$601.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$51.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$601.05
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NVMI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NVMI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nova Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $119.40. Trading at its current price of $370.92, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -67.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $601.05 (+62.0%), versus RCMH-DCF at $51.68 (-86.1%). This +148.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NVMI?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NVMI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NVMI is $119.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $85.42 on its own, implying -77.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVMI Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?

Among 32 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, NVMI ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places NVMI in the top tier.

Nova Ltd.'s positioning within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials segment means that gross margin trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including data center buildout — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NVMI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVMI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Nova Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nova Ltd. earns a quality score of 9.6/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVMI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVMI's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nova Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

LRCXLam Research CorporationQOC 9.7ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.QOC 9.4ASMLASML Holding N.V.QOC 9.7AMATApplied Materials, Inc.QOC 9.4KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8CAMTCamtek Ltd.QOC 9.0VECOVeeco Instruments Inc.QOC 8.4INTTInTest CorporationQOC 7.6TRTTrio-Tech InternationalQOC 6.4

Read investment analysis: LRCX · ONTO · ASML · AMAT · KLAC · CAMT · VECO · INTT · TRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVMI?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVMI’s Quality of Company score of 9.6/10.

PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationQOC 9.6DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 9.6DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 9.6CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdQOC 9.6POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PCTY · DOCS · OMAB · DECK · CRDO · POWL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nova Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Nova Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nova Ltd. (NVMI)'s intrinsic value at $119.40 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $51.68 to $601.05. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $85.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVMI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $370.92, 1 of 7 active models suggest NVMI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $119.40, 67.8% below the current price of $370.92 — a consensus view that NVMI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nova Ltd.'s business model in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for NVMI?

Nova Ltd.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVMI?

CirclFi analyzes NVMI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NVMI?

Of the 7 models currently active on NVMI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $601.05 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $51.68. CirclFi's published fair value for NVMI is the median of that range, $119.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 460% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NVMI a value trap in 2026?

Nova Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Nova Ltd. (NVMI) has a median fair value of $119.40 — 67.8% below the current price of $370.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVMI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVMI valuation
  • Financial statements: Nova Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001109345) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVMI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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