Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Fair Value 2026

STX · Computer Hardware ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) trades at $847.20, versus a $100.06 median fair value across its 10 active models — 88.2% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $69.09.

Key Facts

Ticker
STX
Price
$847.20
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $100.06, 88.2% below the current price of $847.20. Estimates range from $23.04 to $1387.12. STX scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. STX’s -88.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Computer Hardware sector median is -63.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Seagate Technology Holdings plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($847.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.09 -91.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.71 -95.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $126.48 -85.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $406.95 -52.0%
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What Is STX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $23.04 to $1387.12

CirclFi's 10 active models place Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) between $23.04 and $1387.12 per share, a spread of 1363% of the median. The median of that range — $100.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STX, against a current price of $847.20.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$23.04median $100.06$1387.12
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$23.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1387.12
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for STX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Seagate Technology Holdings plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $100.06, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $847.20. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-88.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $1,387.12 (+63.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $23.04 (-97.3%). This +161.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Seagate Technology Holdings plc's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About STX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for STX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STX is $100.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $69.09 on its own, implying -91.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STX Rank in Computer Hardware?

Among 42 Computer Hardware stocks, STX ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places STX in the top tier.

Seagate Technology Holdings plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Seagate Technology Holdings plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Seagate Technology Holdings plc's fundamental quality profile registers 9.5/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +161.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STX's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Seagate Technology Holdings plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Computer Hardware Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Computer Hardware stocks with 13-model coverage

ANETArista Networks, Inc.QOC 9.8SNDKSandisk CorporationQOC 9.0AGMHAGM Group Holdings Inc.QOC 1.8LOGILogitech International S.A.QOC 9.0YIBOPlanet Image International LimitedQOC 2.8WDCWestern Digital CorporationQOC 8.8CANCanaan Inc.QOC 7.0QUBTQuantum Computing Inc.QOC 5.9BTCTBTC Digital Ltd.QOC 4.6

Read investment analysis: ANET · SNDK · AGMH · LOGI · YIBO · WDC · CAN · QUBT · BTCT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STX?

7 companies across all industries closest to STX’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 9.5MSFTMicrosoft CorporationQOC 9.5IDCCInterDigital, Inc.QOC 9.5FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INCY · MPWR · MSFT · IDCC · FIX · ASR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Seagate Technology Holdings plc’s Valuation?

What is Seagate Technology Holdings plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)'s intrinsic value at $100.06 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $23.04 to $1387.12. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $69.09 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $847.20, 1 of 10 active models suggest STX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $100.06, 88.2% below the current price of $847.20 — a consensus view that STX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Seagate Technology Holdings plc's business model in Computer Hardware.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for STX?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc's QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STX?

CirclFi analyzes STX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STX?

Of the 10 models currently active on STX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1387.12 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $23.04. CirclFi's published fair value for STX is the median of that range, $100.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 1363% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STX a value trap in 2026?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) has a median fair value of $100.06 — 88.2% below the current price of $847.20 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STX valuation
  • Financial statements: Seagate Technology Holdings plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001137789) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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