What Is Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Duolingo, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $108.42. Trading at its current price of $132.34, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -18.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $261.33 (+97.5%), versus Dynamic NAV at $25.56 (-80.7%). This +178.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About DUOL?
13 of 13 models are currently active for DUOL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DUOL's intrinsic value at $80.74, implying -39.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does DUOL Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?
Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, DUOL ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places DUOL in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →
The Services-Prepackaged Software sector introduces analytical considerations specific to digital enterprise businesses. For Duolingo, Inc., metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is DUOL a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DUOL a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Duolingo, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Duolingo, Inc. scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +178.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every DUOL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across DUOL's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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